However negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine conclude, a profound shift has already occurred in Washington: the Trump administration now acknowledges that Ukraine requires credible security guarantees backed by the United States. This represents the most significant strategic recalibration in U.S. policy toward Europe in 15 years.
The transformation is significant. At the 2008 Bucharest Summit, while the Bush administration supported Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations, the alliance gave Kyiv a soft rejection. In subsequent years, especially under President Barack Obama, many in Washington insisted categorically that America would never guarantee Ukrainian security. They argued that the risks were too high, the commitment too difficult to undertake, and Ukraine too distinct from core U.S. interests.
As Russia reasserted itself militarily under President Vladimir Putin, invading Georgia in 2008 and annexing Crimea in 2014, more people came to believe that Ukraine was something Putin would ultimately decide upon. As a result, both Democratic and Republican administrations provided Ukraine with limited assistance but refrained from advancing meaningful NATO commitments. The provision of training missions, non-lethal aid, and eventually, Javelin missiles was calibrated to avoid angering Russia. This refusal both to support Ukraine meaningfully and punish Russia for its military adventurism eventually led Moscow to believe it could get away with a larger war. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 proved that American restraint didn’t prevent conflict — it invited it.
It’s taken the Trump administration time to get there, but Washington policymakers now recognize that leaving Ukraine in a security gray zone only allows Russian-related security challenges to metastasize. Without credible American-backed guarantees, another Russian invasion becomes probable within a decade, one that would likely be larger, more destructive, and extend beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Ukraine has certainly helped itself here. After all, Ukrainian forces have heavily degraded Russia’s artillery, infantry, air force, and navy over nearly four years of war. This success makes Ukraine appear not as a perpetual dependent requiring indefinite American charity, but as a strategic asset worth integrating into Western security structures.
CLINTONS TO BE HELD IN CONTEMPT OF CONGRESS IF THEY NO-SHOW DEPOSITIONS
For Russia, which invaded partly to prevent Ukraine’s Western security integration and restore its sphere of influence, U.S. security guarantees to Kyiv would thus represent a historic strategic defeat.
They would also send a message to America’s allies and adversaries alike that the U.S. will defend its position as a leader of the free world.