Iran is burning as its people rise up against the Islamic Republic to demand improved living standards. In response, the theocratic regime has clamped down aggressively. The death toll remains unclear, with some reports suggesting that thousands of protesters have been killed. Regardless, the death toll is clearly heavy.
Protesters have been chanting one name, that of President Donald Trump. They want his intervention against the regime’s brutality.
Trump may well act. On Jan. 2, Trump warned on social media that the United States was “locked and loaded” should Iran start killing protesters at scale. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that “promises made are promises kept.” In turn, his failing to act now would risk not only his personal credibility but also that of the U.S.
But what are Trump’s options?
U.S. air power in Europe and the Middle East could be employed to launch strikes against targets inside Iran. Still, the absence of a U.S. aircraft carrier in the region and advanced air defense systems limits Washington’s capacity to defend its forces and regional allies should Tehran retaliate. It also bears noting that U.S. military contingency planning has focused on strikes against Iranian naval forces, Iran’s nuclear facilities, or responses to attacks on U.S. forces or allies, not on deterring internal repression.
Of course, a dramatic strike against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself appears plausible. We should recall Trump’s recent seizure of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, and his 2020 killing of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general Qassem Soleimani. Again, however, there is the problem of what next?
Some have promoted the return of the shah’s son, Reza Shah Pahlavi, who has lived in exile in the U.S. since Iran’s 1979 revolution. But this option faces serious obstacles. It is unclear how much genuine support Pahlavi commands inside Iran, particularly given widespread resentment toward his father’s repressive rule. There is also the possibility of an IRGC-led consolidation of power through a military-style coup, empowering the most coercive and repressive elements of the Iranian state.
But Trump has a difficult choice to make. His imposition of 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran is unlikely to have any immediate effect on protecting Iranian lives. Only military action, and only to an uncertain outcome, has a possibility of doing that.
Alissa Pavia is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council