President Donald Trump has dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of global oil markets with his bold reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine in Venezuela. The capture of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s longtime dictator, has sent an unmistakable signal to the world: the United States is once again the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere.
Today, more than 30% of daily global oil production is sourced from countries where the United States exercises political influence. The administration now wants American oil companies — producers, refiners, and service operators — to revive Venezuela’s devastated oil industry. This will be a long and difficult process, requiring tens of billions of dollars in investment.
Years of corruption, mismanagement, and underinvestment have left Venezuela’s crude oil infrastructure in ruins. Yet companies such as Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and ConocoPhillips possess the capital, expertise, and technical capacity to rebuild the sector. The economic opportunity for U.S. firms is enormous. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, significantly larger than those of Saudi Arabia.
So which companies stand to benefit most from this dramatically changed global oil market?
The most obvious winner is Valero Energy, which operates major refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Valero’s facilities are capable of processing Venezuela’s heavy, sulfur-laden crude oil. Only a limited number of refineries are configured to handle such grades. Other U.S. refiners, including Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, and Paulsboro Refining, also have the ability to purchase discounted Venezuelan crude and produce high-quality petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Among oil producers, Chevron stands out. It is currently the only major U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela under a U.S. Treasury license. As a result, Chevron is best positioned to capitalize on the redevelopment of Venezuela’s oil industry once sanctions and legal frameworks are fully reset. The major oilfield service firms are also poised to benefit from the reconstruction effort. These include Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker Hughes, all of which have deep experience in complex oilfield redevelopment projects.
Much of Venezuela’s oil is located in the shallow waters of Lake Maracaibo. Shallow-water specialists such as Murphy Oil and Talos Energy could, over time, win production and service contracts in the region.
There are also clear losers from Venezuela’s political realignment. Several Chinese companies have significant exposure to the country’s oil sector. Under Trump’s hard-line interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, Chinese firms, including China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec Group, are likely to be pushed out. Russia also stands to lose. Rosneft and other Russian state-linked energy interests have long been embedded in Venezuela through oil-for-loan agreements and joint ventures in the Orinoco Belt. It should be expected that U.S. companies will displace Russian interests as Venezuela reorients toward Washington.
Canadian oil sands producers may also suffer. Canadian oil sands crude is similar to Venezuelan oil, heavy and sulfur-laden, and much of it is currently refined on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Lower transportation costs and geographic proximity suggest that U.S. refiners will increasingly favor Venezuelan crude over Canadian supply. Financial markets move quickly. U.S. oil producers and oilfield service companies surged on Monday in response to the news. Of course, investors should conduct careful due diligence.
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Beyond energy, there are longer-term and less obvious opportunities tied to Venezuela’s reconstruction. Major U.S. banks will play a critical role in financing decadeslong infrastructure rebuilding and refinancing Venezuela’s massive debt burden.
Over the very long term, U.S. gold and silver companies could also benefit. Venezuela’s mountainous regions contain significant reserves of precious metals that have been largely undeveloped. The political transformation of Venezuela presents substantial investment opportunities, but they will unfold slowly and unevenly. As always, caution and patience remain the wisest strategy.
James Rogan is a former U.S. foreign service officer who later worked in finance and law for 30 years. He writes a daily note on markets, politics, and society.