Peace talks on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine are likely to collapse once Russia rejects binding security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia entered this war to break Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself. A secure Ukraine defeats the entire purpose of President Vladimir Putin’s strategy.
A Ukraine backed by enforceable commitments, sustained Western military support, and credible deterrence would remain outside of Russia’s domination. Security guarantees are, therefore, what the talks most hinge on. If and when negotiations fail, it will be a confirmation that Russia is fighting this war not because of NATO expansion or Russia’s security concerns, but because it hopes to limit Ukraine’s sovereignty. That failure will demonstrate Moscow’s real intentions: to subjugate its neighbors and challenge American power.
In response to that failure, President Donald Trump‘s administration should shift its posture from accommodating Moscow’s demands to pressuring the Kremlin to force a change of attitude in Moscow.
First, Trump should accelerate and expand military assistance to Ukraine. For four years, military aid has been calibrated to avoid escalation rather than to end the war. The result has been a grinding conflict that costs Ukraine territory, lives, and time. A more robust flow of air defense systems, long-range missiles, and advanced technology would increase Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and impose costs on Russian forces. More importantly, it would reset Moscow’s expectations. The Kremlin has prolonged the war in part because it assumes Western support will weaken with time, elections, and fatigue. Russia needs to understand that Ukraine is de facto secure through American backing, and continued aggression carries rising military costs rather than the promise of eventual Western disengagement. Although it would carry risks for U.S. military readiness in terms of a possible war with China, aid delivered to Ukraine at scale would signal that waiting out the United States will not work.
A second step should be granting Ukraine the right to use Western weapons deeper inside Russia. This has allowed Russia to shelter military infrastructure deep inside its territory. Lastly, the costs of refusing peace must be levied on Russia’s economy. Russia continues to move energy exports and acquire critical components through third countries with limited consequences, avoiding sanctions. The Kremlin relies on China, India, Turkey, and Central Asian states for backdoor imports. When Moscow walks away from peace, Trump should direct the Treasury to aggressively police secondary sanctions, raising the price for companies, financial institutions, and countries facilitating Russia’s war.
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A secure Ukraine contradicts Russia’s war aims. When talks collapse on that fact, the appropriate response is to make the alternative less attractive. The U.S. response must be shaped by the premise that leverage, not accommodation, is what turns talks into a meaningful process. No negotiations can succeed if one side believes time and pressure work in its favor.
Trump should alter that calculation.