President Donald Trump is adopting a positive strategy toward removing Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro from power. By gradually escalating pressure on Maduro’s regime without directly using U.S. military force against it, Trump increases the probability of an internal coup d’etat.
Recent days have seen continued U.S. strikes against narco-trafficking boats, the U.S. seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil, ongoing flights by U.S. Navy jets just off the Venezuelan coast (which will have exhausted Venezuelan air force and air defense units by forcing them to remain at extremely high readiness), and now a blockade of Venezuelan oil exports.
While Maduro blatantly stole last year’s presidential election and thus lacks any democratic authority, a blockade is technically an act of war. Still, these actions are ultimately designed to make a U.S.-Venezuela war unnecessary. Trump wants to strangle Maduro of revenue and present him as an impotent leader who soon won’t be able to pay for domestic loyalty. The hope is that Maduro’s supporters will move against him in the belief that waiting too long will see them sharing in his fate.
On the other side of the American coin, it is highly likely that CIA assets inside Venezuela are encouraging top military and even some top regime officials to move against Maduro in return for lucrative payoffs and assurances of immunity against future prosecution. Trump has publicly announced that he has authorized CIA covert action inside the country.
An internal coup would be far more preferable to direct U.S. military intervention. For one, it would limit America’s entanglement the day after tomorrow to supporting a transitional government. That option would leave the security and governance questions to Venezuelans rather than to a de facto American consul who might serve as a rallying point for nationalist insurgency. This insurgency concern cannot be underestimated.
Venezuela is home to a large number of armed criminal groups, including heavily armed narco-trafficking entities. And while there is much reduced ideological weight behind the “Chavismo” regime that Maduro inherited from Hugo Chavez, it still retains some powerful supporters. Maduro remains in power even amid the onslaught of American pressure, after all.
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But if Maduro and much of his inner circle are eventually pushed out of power, an insurgency involving both the narco-traffickers and at least some former security/military personnel is likely. Considering Venezuela’s abundance of deep jungles and sprawling favelas, the U.S. does not want to be responsible for waging a counterinsurgency when Maduro goes.
In short, Trump is taking the right approach thus far. Via his drip-drip pressure campaign, he motivates those inside Venezuela to move against Maduro in a manner that makes them both nationally credible and power-functional stakeholders for managing what follows.