The September jobs report, released a month and a half late thanks to the government shutdown, contained some positive news that the Trump administration has reason to brag about. But it also revealed weakness in the economy, further reflected in fresh polling that the White House should take as a warning.
Defying economic predictions, employers added 119,000 jobs in September and average wages continued to rise, outpacing inflation for the calendar year by about 1 percentage point. Labor force participation increased, as did production, while long-term unemployment fell. Most importantly, all the job gains since President Donald Trump took office have gone to native-born Americans, while all of the job losses have come from foreign-born workers, the opposite of what happened under President Joe Biden.
But the report contained steep downward revisions from previous months, showing that between April and August, the economy added only 74,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% as more people joined the labor force, and wage growth was slower than in previous months.
More troubling for the White House, the latest Fox News poll shows that 76% of adults have a negative view of the overall economy, which is worse than the 70% in the last month of Biden’s presidency, and 60% of voters rate their personal finances as fair or poor, which is the same as Biden’s final month in office.
The public mostly blames rising prices. A majority of voters say costs have increased for utilities (78%), healthcare (67%), and housing (66%). They no longer blame Biden for rising prices. By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, 62%-32%, voters say Trump’s policies are more responsible for the current economy than are Biden’s, including 62% of independents — majorities of Republicans still blame Biden, while Democrats overwhelmingly blame Trump. Just 18% of voters say inflation is completely or mostly under control.
The cause of the weakness in Trump’s economy is no mystery. The jobs report shows that it is those sectors most hit by higher tariffs that are struggling most. The transportation and warehousing sector lost 25,000 jobs in September, and the manufacturing sector lost another 6,000.
Fortunately, the Trump administration shows signs of acknowledging its mistakes with tariff policy. Trump announced an end to tariffs on a slew of food items and agricultural goods such as beef, coffee, tropical fruits, cocoa, tea, spices, and fertilizers. Unfortunately, high tariffs on steel, aluminum, and appliances are all still in place, driving up costs for the manufacturing and construction sectors.
NETANYAHU SHOULD CALL MAMDANI’S BLUFF
When Trump came to office, Republicans enjoyed solid advantages among voters on which party had the best policies on border security, immigration, crime, affordability, and wages. After six months of tariffs, they retain significant leads on border security, immigration, and crime, but Democrats now lead on affordability and wages — Democrats always led on healthcare and climate.
Trump can turn these numbers around, but only if he treats affordability as urgently as he treated the border. The September report shows voters will reward him when the economy grows and punish him when prices rise. Rolling back food tariffs was a start, but keeping steel and appliance tariffs in place continues to squeeze manufacturers, builders, and families. If Trump wants to regain his edge on affordability, he must fix the policies driving costs higher.