President Donald Trump’s stark reversal on releasing Justice Department files related to Jeffrey Epstein is a positive step. What these files mean for Trump, politically, is unclear. Yet, considering the president’s ardent insistence until now that the files remain sealed, their impact is unlikely to be positive. And if so, Trump may well seek to use the immense powers of his office in an attempt to change the subject.
One way in which Trump could guarantee shifting at least some media attention away from the Epstein files would be to launch military action against Venezuela.
The Venezuelan regime lacks any democratic or moral authority and essentially exists as an authoritarian organized crime group. Dictator Nicolas Maduro has turned the nation with the world’s largest proven oil reserves into a dystopia of crime, corruption, and poverty. Still, a regime change military action against Venezuela would be inadvisable for numerous reasons. And if motivated in any way by the desire to deflect attention from domestic concerns, it would obviously also constitute a deeply unpatriotic presidential action.
But it would undoubtedly also be effective as a tool of distraction.
The U.S. has now deployed a very formidable array of military forces around Venezuela. This includes an aircraft carrier strike group, numerous destroyers, at least one submarine, a Marine expeditionary unit including a reinforced ground combat element and Harrier jump jets, hundreds of special operations forces, and a squadron of Marine Corps F-35 fighter jets. B-52 and B-1B bombers from stateside U.S. bases have also made repeated training and show-of-force flights off the Venezuelan coast over the past month.
Put simply, if the Trump administration wants to make a show of air strikes, raids, or other military actions against Maduro’s regime, it can do so. Any strikes could be combined with CIA action to attempt to bribe or otherwise persuade senior Venezuelan military officials to start a revolt against Maduro’s rule. All of this means that, were it so desired, the Trump administration could avoid a direct ground invasion of Venezuela while wreaking havoc on Maduro’s regime. Such activity would obviously be extraordinarily newsworthy.
It’s clear that the Trump administration is preparing for new military action in Venezuela. Strikes against drug-smuggling boats continue apace, and Trump has openly admitted that he has authorized CIA covert action against Maduro’s regime. And escalated action seems in the offing.
Take Sunday’s designation of the Venezuelan military-led “Cartel of the Suns” organization as a foreign terrorist organization. Led by senior members of the Venezuelan armed forces, the cartel is a key source of funding for Maduro and a key financial lubricant for the military’s loyalty to his person. By designating the cartel as a terrorist organization, the administration bolsters its supporting legal foundation to justify future military action against the group. Which, in the case of this cartel, means a supporting legal foundation to directly strike the Venezuelan military.
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Whatever Trump decides to do in Venezuela, Congress should bear scrutiny to the timing and conduct of that action. Trump would be justified, if misguided, in using force in an effort to remove Maduro from power.
He would not be justified in doing so simply to distract attention from domestic political liabilities.