Following a threat from its consul general in Osaka that Sanae Takaichi should have her “dirty neck” severed, China remains infuriated over the admission by Japan’s prime minister that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would justify military action. Takaichi simply offered an honest appraisal of the devastating consequences a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would bring for Tokyo.
China is determined to impose costs on the new prime minister for her courage, costs that increasingly seem designed to test the foundations of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping wants to see what the United States will do, if anything, as he escalates his threats to Japanese sovereignty.
Xi’s effort was exposed on Sunday when the Chinese coast guard deployed a flotilla through waters immediately surrounding the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. As it absurdly does with the near entirety of the South China and East China seas, China claims the islands as its own. In contrast, the U.S. recognizes the islands as administered by Japan and protected under the two countries’ defense alliance, the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security.
The flotilla incursion is only the latest Chinese response to Takaichi’s speech 11 days ago. China has also threatened to destroy Japan and, somewhat ironically in light of its threats, warned its citizens not to visit Japan due to escalating attacks on Chinese visitors. Notably, Chinese officials have repeatedly failed to point to any specific examples of these attacks.
Still, the Senkaku Islands incursion demands the Trump administration’s attention. Beijing is genuinely furious over Takaichi’s comments. Its emotion over what it regards as the ultimate red-line issue notwithstanding, China fears that Takaichi will encourage others to support the U.S.-led effort to bring allies on board in an effort to deter any future Chinese attack on Taiwan. It wants to punish Japan and deter others from replicating Takaichi’s resolve. That’s not something the U.S. should accept, especially not with Japan. Takaichi has pledged big, if overdue, defense spending boosts. And Japan is far more productive a U.S. security partner than South Korea, for example. But the key requirement here is to resist any Chinese efforts to test the U.S.-Japan alliance and find it wanting.
That’s clearly what China is aiming to do. As it ups the military pressure, China wants to see whether the Trump administration will take a robust stance in support of Japan’s security. China will secure an important victory if the U.S. fails to make a show of defending Japan. After all, a U.S. failure to stand with Japan as it comes under Beijing’s furious pressure would suggest to Takaichi and the Japanese people that supporting America’s deterrence strategy on Taiwan is worth more harm than good. If Japan sees that taking a robust stance in support of U.S. interests only leads to a major increase in pressure from China without commensurate American support, America isn’t exactly going to seem like an ally worth banking on. Other American allies will get the same memo.
President Donald Trump must be astute to this reality. The president’s affection for Japan, especially its late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is well understood and valued in the country. But bilateral defensive alliances require more than words of affection and new trade deals. They sometimes require both participants to take hard actions to ensure that their alliance remains credible. China is plainly now testing Trump’s willingness to take those harder actions. Trump must ensure he passes the test.
This needn’t be complicated. The U.S. 7th Fleet has its forward headquarters in Yokosuka, Japan. This base hosts numerous destroyers and the USS George Washington carrier strike group. That aircraft carrier just completed two days of exercises with the South Korean navy. The carrier, or one or some of its escorts, could easily now be deployed to make a brief but public transit through the Senkaku Islands. This small gesture would remind China that its effort to intimidate Japan risks consequences well beyond its liking. It would also remind Japan that the Trump administration is watching and ready to support its ally as needed.
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This action would also positively contrast the U.S. with China in the eyes of the world. China’s inability to show any semblance of diplomatic decorum is well understood and rightly resented across the globe.
By now standing with its close ally, the U.S. would remind the world that while China might dangle the reliability of big investments in return for political fealty to Beijing, the U.S. ultimately offers its partners a far better deal: one centered on mutually beneficial engagement alongside support for their democratic sovereignty.