President Donald Trump held an apparently successful meeting with President Ahmed al Sharaa of Syria at the White House on Monday. Sharaa’s former status as a dedicated jihadist makes him a highly unlikely American partner. Still, Trump has a fragile but nevertheless substantial opportunity to help shape Sharaa in favor of all Syrians and Middle Eastern stability. Trump deserves credit for having the political courage to attempt engagement with a former American nemesis.
Sharaa’s visit coincides with the lifting of U.S. and U.N. sanctions on his person. Those sanctions were imposed in response to Sharaa’s previous tenure of the al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al Sham group. Other sanctions relief agreed last week should free up billions of dollars for Sharaa’s cash-starved government. And there’s no question that Sharaa is the man to deal with in Damascus.
The new president’s power is rooted in HTS’s success in leading the charge into Damascus last December. That action ended the regime of Bashar Assad and his family dynasty’s long dictatorial regime. But even as they seek to cajole Sharaa towards eventual democratic elections, Western governments first want to ensure that Sharaa doesn’t simply replace one sectarian regime with another. That matters because attacks on the Alawite minority, from which Assad hailed, have killed hundreds of people since Sharaa assumed power. While Sharaa has pledged to root out those responsible for these attacks, including in his own security forces, more robust action is needed. Sharaa himself has been linked to sectarian attacks during his time with HTS, and was previously detained by the U.S. military.
While in a better position than the Alawites, the security of Syria’s Christian minority population is also a key concern, one that Trump will surely have emphasized on Monday.
Advancing these humanitarian interests, Trump should also clarify that bolstered U.S. links, investment and trade are dependent upon Sharaa’s increased support for top U.S. security interests. These interests include ensuring that ISIS terrorists and HTS spin-off jihadist groups are aggressively confronted, Russia is kept out of the new Syria, and that Iranian infiltration into southern Syria is prevented (something that Sharaa should support based on HTS’s profound ideological animus for the Iranian regime). It would also be positive if the U.S. military were to establish a small presence at Damascus airport, as Reuters reported last week.
Major challenges remain, however.
For one, Sharaa is desperate for the repeal of the Caesar Act, which imposed strict penalties on Syria over Assad’s human rights abuses. And while the Trump administration and Senate Republicans support legislation to revoke the Caesar Act sanctions, as The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports, House Foreign Affairs Chairman Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), known for his hawkish pro-Israel views, has refused thus far to sign off ending the sanctions. Still, Mast held an apparently positive meeting with Sharaa on Sunday.
Divisions over how to deal with Sharaa are not limited to the White House and some in Congress. Israel also disagrees with Trump’s outreach strategy.
Israel favors using Sharaa’s diminished power to impose a de facto buffer zone in southern Syria. It wants to prevent a resurgence of Iranian weapons smuggling and militia operations in this area that would threaten its northern border. Israel is also keen to protect the Druze minority population in southern Syria. The problem, at least from an American perspective, is that Israel more broadly seeks an inherently weak Syrian government. It wants to be able to act with impunity against Syria-based targets and avoid the emergence of a strong Sunni-Arab led regime on its border. In contrast, the Trump administration appears to want a strong, stable, and moderate Syrian government that can collaborate toward regional stability, prosperity, and the Trump administration’s interest in establishing a network of pro-U.S. Sunni regimes. Relaying the importance of Israeli security concerns to Sharaa, Trump should also exert pressure on Israel to avoid escalating air strikes inside Syria.
What happens next?
SHUTDOWN ENTERS 40TH DAY WITH FLIGHTS SNARLED AND SNAP DISRUPTED
Much depends on how Sharaa responds to Trump’s olive branch. If the Syrian leader takes bold steps to better protect minority rights, confront jihadists, and align with U.S. regional interests, Trump will likely reciprocate with new investment and continuing sanctions relief. He’ll view such a deal with a reformed jihadist as a historic success. But until then, all sides will remain wary.
After all, the ingredients for natural trust aren’t exactly abundant here.