The Trump administration is being criticized for announcing the withdrawal of a combat brigade of the U.S. Army’s 101st Air Assault Division from NATO member Romania. The Biden administration deployed these forces to Ukraine-bordering Romania following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
If Russian forces were surging across the Dnieper River and approaching Romanian borders, this withdrawal would be a very serious mistake. Fortunately, however, Russian forces are stuck in southern and southeastern Ukraine, taking massive casualties (Russia has suffered approximately 200,000 killed in action since the war began) in return for meager territorial gains. The prospect of a near-medium-term Russian breakthrough that threatens NATO is extremely low. That reality offers a counterpoint to the anger this withdrawal has caused on Capitol Hill.
PUTIN ATTEMPTS TO BLACKMAIL TRUMP WITH NUCLEAR MISSILE TEST
In a joint statement, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL) “strongly oppose the decision not to maintain the rotational U.S. brigade in Romania and the Pentagon’s process for its ongoing force posture review that may result in further drawdowns of U.S. forces from Eastern Europe.” The two Republicans suggest that the withdrawal “sends the wrong signal to Russia at the very moment President Trump is applying pressure to force Vladimir Putin to come to the table to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine.”
Conversely, the U.S. Army says, “This is not an American withdrawal from Europe or a signal of lessened commitment to NATO and Article 5 [NATO’s mutual defense stipulation].” The Army adds that it retains a clear ability to “support President Trump’s commitment to defend NATO allies.”
The Army statement holds up to scrutiny.
For a start, Putin cares very little about whether the 101st has a brigade in Romania or not. Effective deterrence of Putin requires his understanding that any Russian attack against NATO will result in a unified alliance response to annihilate his forces swiftly and decisively. The U.S. military footprint in Europe will continue to secure that understanding after this withdrawal.
We must also contemplate the broader military considerations here.
The 101st Air Assault Division is designed to conduct air assaults involving the helicopter transport of highly mobile light infantry forces behind enemy lines. This capability would bring clear value in the event of a Russian attack on NATO. After all, Russian forces have repeatedly shown themselves vulnerable in Ukraine to attacks behind their offensive spearheads. But the 101st’s specific capabilities also make it valuable in terms of contingency planning for operations against China. And with Europe belatedly building up its forces, the 101st can be freed up to head home to train for a wider range of contingencies, including, perhaps, regarding Venezuela.
Moreover, 1,000 U.S. troops will remain in Romania even after the 101st heads home. The U.S. Army also retains a formidable presence in central and eastern Europe. The Army’s V Corps headquarters in Poland commands the 2nd Cavalry Regiment (which includes various mechanized infantry, intelligence, and artillery units), the 12th Combat Aviation Brigade and its three Apache gunship companies and three airlift companies, the 41st Field Artillery Brigade’s six rocket artillery batteries, and at least one armored combat brigade from the 1st Cavalry Division. While some of these forces are in Germany, they could be deployed to Romania at short notice.
Nevertheless, the U.S. Army’s force disposition in Europe remains formidable. The Army also retains a proven and unparalleled ability to surge high-end combat forces into Europe at extremely short notice. Further Army drawdowns would raise more concerns, but Putin knows that the U.S. Army isn’t just in Europe for show. That said, it would make sense for the U.S. Army to base more units in Germany further east. That would allow more effective deterrence of Russia without the need for additional force deployments to Europe. Poland is an exceptional U.S. ally, as is Estonia.
We need to keep perspective. Those complaining about this withdrawal would do far better to criticize governments like those of Spain and Italy, which continue to shortchange defense spending 11 years after they pledged otherwise, and 3 1/2 years following the start of the largest war in Europe since 1945.
What really matters when it comes to assuring NATO deterrence is not whether the 101st Air Assault Division is in Romania. What matters is that the U.S. has forces deployed to deter Russia across the spectrum of war. To that end, we should bear positive attention to Trump’s notably more positive rhetoric toward NATO of late and his clear deterrence of Russian nuclear threats. Trump’s fortitude here will remain important as Putin reacts to increasing sanctions pressure by dangling new nuclear threats.
WHY DOES TRUMP TOLERATE VIKTOR ORBAN’S MANY INSULTS
Top line: The U.S. Army is retaining forces in Europe that are necessary to defeat a Russian land invasion. At the same time, the U.S. cannot continue to do everything, everywhere, for everyone. Future U.S. Air Force and Navy deployments out of Europe are also likely as Europe finally steps up and the U.S. military tries to reduce its extraordinary force imbalance with China’s People’s Liberation Army.
Fortunately, Europe is belatedly beginning to take defense seriously. It’s tragic that it took Trump’s return to office, rather than four years of President Joe Biden’s far more polite Ukraine wartime pressure, to secure this development. Still, there is no reason that France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, or Germany cannot replace the 101st Air Assault Division with their own forces.