Recent polling for statewide races in key states shows that the America First movement remains strong despite nationwide Democratic opposition.
For instance, as former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s retirement creates a vacancy for Kentucky‘s Senate seat, champion of President Donald Trump’s America First agenda, Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) leads his primary opponents in endorsements, contributions, and public support.
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In Congress, Barr voted in alignment with Trump’s agenda 98% of the time in his first term, was the first member of the state’s congressional delegation to endorse Trump’s reelection bid, and served as chairman for Trump’s reelection campaign in Kentucky.
Now, Barr counts on the support of 40% of likely voters and holds a favorable view among 68% of likely voters. Barr’s dominance over his opponents has since attracted notable endorsements from Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), Chairwoman of the House Republican Leadership Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA). Others, who previously endorsed Barr’s opponent, such as former NCAA swimmer Riley Gaines, now place their trust in Barr.
In other states such as Florida and Texas, polls and recent results indicate that the Republican candidate, regardless of who that may be, will secure their Senate seats by a decisive margin.
In Texas, the victor of the current three-way GOP primary between current state Attorney General Ken Paxton, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is set to beat their Democratic opponent by at least 6 points in the 2026 general election.
In Florida, there are no recent polls for the statewide 2026 Senate elections, but former Sen. Marco Rubio’s 16-point win over Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) in 2022 and Trump’s 13-point victory in 2024 serve as indicators that a Republican candidate will win regardless of who becomes the party’s nominee.
For governor’s races in more contested states, such as Arizona and Michigan, Trump’s proven track record of putting Americans first has given Republican candidates a historic opportunity to unseat their Democratic opponents.
After Trump’s administration ensured that the deterrence of China would be one of its priorities, the public’s distrust of politicians who aid China’s communist party grew significantly.
In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has recently come under fire for taking donations from a Chinese Communist Party executive and vetoing multiple pieces of legislation that would have prevented the CCP from making inroads in Arizona’s industries. That has led her to a razor-thin margin with her Republican opponent.
Florida’s gubernatorial race has a similar scenario. The votes are split between Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a longtime Democrat now running as an independent, and state Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried. However, Donalds has more than enough support to beat any of his general election opponents combined.
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If the Republican primary election were tomorrow, polling results and campaign finance records indicate that Donalds’s alignment with Trump put him far ahead of current Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
The promising possible electoral triumph of the candidates behind the America First movement nationwide serves as a strong indicator that the Democratic Party’s pushback against Trump has fallen short of limiting the movement’s mobility.