Trump deftly holds Israel-Hamas ceasefire together

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President Donald Trump deserves credit for holding steady on the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Following the historic agreement, which saw Hamas release all remaining living Israeli hostages in its custody last week, the two sides have exchanged fire repeatedly, so the ceasefire is precarious at best. But Trump has maintained pressure on both, which has helped prevent hostilities from gathering momentum and tipping Gaza back into open warfare.

Hamas has attacked Israeli forces repeatedly, including one occasion in southern Gaza in which it killed two Israeli soldiers. Israel hit back with air strikes and temporarily suspended aid deliveries into Gaza, as it had every right to do given the terrorists’ breach of the terms of the deal. Israel has, however, resumed deliveries under pressure from the Trump administration. Tensions nevertheless continue to grow.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some American conservatives are pressing Trump to support a full-scale resumption of Israeli military actions against Hamas. Instead, he is holding Israel back while warning Hamas that his patience is running thin. On Monday, the president suggested that Hamas attacks on Israeli forces were not authorized by Hamas leadership but rather by splinter groups. But he warned that unless the Hamas attacks ceased, he would unleash Israel to “eradicate them … very quickly and pretty violently.”

This is the right strategy. Israel understandably wants to resume intense military action against Hamas, for the terrorists have manifestly failed to keep their word and have also lost all their remaining leverage, having released the last hostages. But Trump recognizes that an immediate return to war would damage chances of a successful peace process in Gaza and would also work against U.S. interests.

Israeli air strikes could worsen general suffering in Gaza, and this would jeopardize the support of America’s regional Muslim allies. Pressure from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar, and Turkey was instrumental in getting Hamas to release the hostages. While some of these nations (Saudi Arabia and Jordan) are excellent allies, others, including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, are much less reliable, and others (Turkey and Qatar) are not to be trusted if the wind changes. Trump staked his personal reputation on persuading them that he would do all he could to advance a peace process if these states yanked Hamas into line.

Were Trump to grant Israel carte blanche to resume war against Hamas, it would jeopardize America’s credibility and the president’s. America’s relationship with both Israel and its Arab neighbors suffered under former President Barack Obama, much to China’s and Russia’s advantage, and deteriorated further under President Joe Biden’s slothful and arrogant neglect. But Trump is now restoring these relationships to the great benefit of American security and prosperity. He should be careful not to squander this progress.

Instead, he should support Israeli retaliation against Hamas while also giving the second phase of his peace plan time to bear fruit. It was always going to be a major challenge to get Hamas to surrender its weapons, and so it has proved. Trump is forcing Hamas to make a simple choice between annihilation by Israel or relinquishing its rockets, missiles, sniper rifles, and the majority of its assault rifles.

By showing America’s Arab allies that he is resisting a full-scale resumption of hostilities, Trump will earn the political capital necessary to press them to reciprocate with continued support for his peace plan. Reciprocity is emphasized in the Arab world, for it is concrete evidence of respect. If, three weeks from now, Hamas is still resisting substantive progress toward disarmament, Trump will be able to call upon our regional allies to add pressure on Hamas. He would be well placed to demand that they either use their own military forces to disarm Hamas or accept that Israel will do it. He’ll be able to do so while saying he kept his word to give peace a chance.

PHASE TWO OF ISRAEL-HAMAS DEAL REQUIRES TRUMP’S PATIENT FORTITUDE

The peace process may fail. Israel may even probably be left with no option but to resume hostilities against Hamas. If that moment comes, America should support the Israelis, for it would be Hamas that squandered the opportunity for peace. That seems the most likely course, for Hamas is neither willing nor able to negotiate in good faith or genuinely abandon its raison d’être, which is the destruction of the Jewish state. But even if that is the course of future events, Trump’s current restraint can work to everyone’s favor except that of the terrorists. He is isolating them and ensuring regional allies have only Hamas to blame if things fall apart.

Time is the quiet ally of possibility. Trump deserves credit for doing what he can to ensure that his historic accord has the chance of broad and lasting success.

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