Fresh off his triumphant Gaza peace deal, President Donald Trump is now weighing a different sort of path to peace in Ukraine. Having masterfully blended incentives and consequences to broker the Gaza agreement, Trump is now considering selling Tomahawk long-range missiles to Kyiv, a step long requested by President Volodimyr Zelensky to finally end the yearslong conflict.
Trump, a foreign policy realist by nature, seems now to clearly understand that Russian President Vladimir Putin will only relent from his morally repugnant war if he shares in its pain. That requires the capacity for Ukraine, with United States intelligence and advanced weapons, to strike deep into the Russian heartland.
Providing Ukraine with the capability to strike the Russian mainland would produce three critical outcomes. First, it would disrupt the ability of Russian forces to stage, supply, and launch operations without fear of effective long-range counter-strikes, a tactical advantage they’ve enjoyed since the start of the war. Eliminating this sanctuary will mean forcing them to move large, vulnerable stockpiles much farther from the front, extending already long and slow supply lines. Major command centers would also be forced to relocate, disrupting attack planning and the coordination of forces.
Despite this disadvantage, Ukraine has managed to stave off a total Russian victory for years. Trump must now grant Kyiv tactical parity.
Second, striking key targets in the Russian energy sector, such as refineries and pipelines, would significantly harm Russia’s economy. Oil and gas revenues are a major funding source for Russia’s military-industrial complex and the war in Ukraine, as well as a significant portion of the nation’s overall federal budget. A domestic energy supply crunch would lead to soaring domestic energy prices, higher inflation, and higher transportation costs.
Support for the war in Russia remains strong due to years of nationalist fervor. But a sharp economic downturn could sour the public mood. Putin, despite his despotism, fears public discontent, as it directly threatens manpower supply. The Kremlin has largely shifted to a “volunteer” contract system, offering generous salaries and bonuses to recruit, and regime stability at home.
Finally, Tomahawks would confer profound symbolic significance. Only a few select U.S. allies possess them; Ukraine’s inclusion in this group would anchor the nation firmly in the West without having to go through the lengthy and divisive process of admitting it into NATO. Providing Tomahawks is a critical step toward ensuring an independent, strong, and Western-allied Ukraine.
Speaking Monday from the Oval Office, Trump announced he’d “sort of made a decision, pretty much,” on the sale, signaling he plans to move forward. He wisely qualified this, saying, “I want to find out what they’re doing with them, where they’re sending them… I have to ask that question.” The U.S. must demand assurances that Ukraine targets only military objectives, not strikes on major population centers.
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Putin’s retort that a sale of Tomahawks will “inevitably lead to the complete and utter destruction of our bilateral relations” is a hollow threat. His own aggression, from the 2014 annexation to the 2022 invasion, already sabotaged that relationship. Putin’s word is meaningless, and his “friendship” means even less. As long as he avoids serious costs, he will not stop.
As Jakub Grygiel argued in the Washington Examiner this week: “There is no alternative but to give Ukraine the means to escalate.”