If you’re going to draw a red line for Vladimir Putin, you’d better be ready to enforce it. That said, a willingness to draw and enforce red lines is the key means of deterring Russia‘s president and preserving a just peace. Continuing to fancy himself a spiritual successor to Peter the Great, it is critical that European nations better prepare themselves to deal with Putin’s threats.
The urgency is real.
Last Thursday, following Russian attacks on European interests in Ukraine and Russia’s deliberate incursion of 19 drones into Polish airspace, I suggested that continued European appeasement of Putin was encouraging his appetite for aggression. On Friday, Russia then sent three fighter jets into NATO member state Estonia’s airspace for nearly 15 minutes.
Fortunately, if belatedly, Poland has now drawn an aerial red line for Putin.
Speaking on Monday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned, “I want to be very clear. We will make a decision to shoot down flying objects without discussion when they violate our territory and fly over Poland. There is no room for debate here.” Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski echoed this sentiment at the United Nations annual meeting in New York City. He emphasized that “If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls upon NATO territory, please don’t come here and whine about it. You have been warned.”
To his credit, President Donald Trump has backed Poland. On Sunday, Trump answered in the affirmative when asked whether he would help defend Poland and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) if Russia keeps escalating against them. This is a serious moment for Europe and for NATO. Putin’s recently increased penchant for escalation means that he may now test the stated Polish-American resolve. It is thus critical that Poland now enforce its red line, bringing down any Russian aircraft that enters Polish airspace.
Still, we should not obsess over the prospect of imminent nuclear war. When Turkey shot down a Russian jet invading its airspace back in November 2015, it proved that Putin can be put back in his box when he is punished for going too far. And when it comes to Poland and America, Putin knows that he faces military powers far superior to his own. Far superior, it should be noted, across the full spectrum of conflict.
Trump’s support for Poland and Poland’s now overt commitment to defend its territory is thus very important. Yes, Trump is rightly frustrated that too many NATO allies continue to skimp on defense spending even as the U.S. military needs to refocus more resources on China’s growing threat in the Pacific.
Yet, Trump also recognizes that some allies, such as Poland and Estonia, are far better than others, such as Italy and Spain. He is right to do so. These allies deserve American support not simply because they are allies, but because they love America, spend significantly on their own defense, are willing to send their forces to fight alongside Americans around the world, and wish simply to live free of Russian dominion. Poland offers the finest example in this regard, spending the highest proportion of its GDP of any NATO member state on defense.
Put simply, these are the kind of allies worth having.
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Too few in the MAGA movement recognize this reality. Groups like CPAC continue to salivate at the feet of Xi Jinping’s European viceroy, Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Instead, they should align with Poland’s far better example of American friendship joined to support for traditional values and burden sharing.
Regardless, in Poland, Putin has chosen a poor target via which to test NATO’s resolve. If he now gambles that Polish resolve and Trump’s support for it is malleable, he must be reeducated.