In a rare escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO forces engaged in a direct defense of allied airspace overnight Tuesday-Wednesday. The incident occurred when approximately 19 Russian-controlled drones breached Polish airspace, some entering from Belarus. NATO fighter jets downed a number of the drones.
This is a big deal. Some of the drones penetrated deep into Poland, scattering debris, damaging homes, and forcing the temporary closure of four airports. Warsaw invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty to initiate consultations with allies. But NATO’s performance here is very much under scrutiny. Russian forces launch hundreds of drones daily against Ukraine, with Kyiv showing an apparently far better competency than NATO in defending itself.
But the drones are only the tip of the iceberg. Last week, Russia is believed to have interfered with the GPS on European Union Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s aircraft. Moscow has also ramped up sabotage efforts across Europe, with arson attacks in Warsaw, London, and Vilnius. The Western intelligence community calls this a “shadow war” aimed at spreading fear, disrupting logistics, and testing allied resolve.
In much the same way, Russia’s drone antics this week are designed to investigate NATO’s defensive capabilities and deliver a blunt political message to Western publics: the war can come to you, it can spill into your skies and your streets. By stoking that fear, the Kremlin aims to pressure Western leaders who are already struggling with war fatigue at home.
Vladimir Putin assumes that NATO’s answers to his aggression will be restrained and ultimately unconvincing. But the lesson from Poland’s skies is that only a more robust response can manage Russia’s growing escalation. By raising the cost of provocation and breaking Moscow’s sense of impunity, the alliance can deter future attacks before they happen.
That begins with strengthening NATO’s defenses along Russia’s borders. Credible air defense infrastructure, counter-drone systems, and rapid reaction forces should make clear that allied territory cannot be treated as a Russian testing ground. Ukraine should also be given the freedom and military tools to strike inside Russia itself. Oil depots, logistics hubs, and airfields are the arteries of Moscow’s war machine.
If every drone launched into NATO airspace is followed by a strengthened NATO presence and new weapons for Ukraine, Moscow may think twice before it sends drones again.