Democrats regularly complain about how unfair the electoral system is. What they are about to learn in the coming years is that the biggest unfair advantage the GOP has is that Republicans are good at governing.
The New York Times has an early preview of what the 2032 Electoral College map could look like based on population projections, and every data point cuts against Democrats. The Democratic strongholds of California, Illinois, and New York are projected to lose a combined six electoral votes, with Democratic Rhode Island losing another to bring that total to seven. Democrat-controlled swing states Pennsylvania and Minnesota would also be losing one vote each. The only significant gain a Democrat-run state would be getting is one vote in traditionally Republican Arizona.
Meanwhile, Republican bastions Texas and Florida are set to combine for a gain of five votes. Utah, Idaho, and Georgia will also each be gaining one vote. In 2032, Democrats could win Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, and still lose to Republicans in the presidential election.
This is after Texas and Florida already gained a combined three electoral votes in the last census apportionment, while California, Illinois, and New York all lost one. The unavoidable reality for Democrats is that Republican-run states are gaining population at a far faster rate than Democrat-run states.
It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out why this is. California, New York, and Illinois are poorly run states with high tax burdens and costs of living. The Democrats running those states ignore quality of life problems and crime, and they are spending their states into a hole for ineffective social and infrastructure programs, which causes them to raise taxes even higher.
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Residents are moving out of those states and into more affordable Republican-run states such as Florida, Texas, Idaho, and Utah. Those states have far lower tax burdens, don’t have onerous regulations that make building and buying housing ludicrously expensive, and a justice system that prioritizes justice for victims over free time for criminals. These Republican-run states are cleaner, safer, cheaper, and more efficient in governance than their Democratic counterparts.
The 2030 census and the makeup of the Electoral College for the 2032 presidential election are not set in stone, but it is clear that things are trending the GOP’s way on those fronts. That can be entirely chalked up to the effective governance of Republican governors and legislatures and the utter incompetence of their Democratic counterparts.