Gavin Newsom is the likely Democratic presidential nominee

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It should not be lost amid the bizarre social media postsGavin Newsom is most likely to be the 2028 Democratic nominee for president. This means there is a real threat that his failed California model will take root in Washington, D.C.

Newsom’s social media team is currently conducting a sad political impersonation effort, mimicking President Donald Trump’s social media posts in a strategy equal to trolling Trump voters and giving Newsom some identity for his campaign. While the lazy social media team rewrites Trump’s posts for Newsom, the governor himself is out using Trumpian messaging about “liberation day” to make Democratic voters view him as the natural foil to Trump.

It will all probably work. The Democratic Party in recent months has shown that it has learned nothing from its failed 2024 platform. Democrats have decided that their tanking popularity is simply proof that they don’t “fight” enough, which is why every mediocre presidential wannabe from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) to Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) is trying to portray themselves as a fighter. Newsom’s Trump impersonation is his way of filling that same lane.

Unlike those two, Newsom is a serious Democratic contender. A new Echelon Insights poll puts Democratic support for Newsom at 13%, second only behind Harris’s 26%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the only other candidate in striking distance, polling 11%. Of the three, Newsom is the only one who avoids the stink of Biden’s presidency and the health cover-up that defined it.

Harris’s support is a bit of a mirage, as she is coasting on the name recognition of being the previous Democratic nominee. The best data point for this comes from a recent POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll, which shows Newsom leading Harris among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents 25%-19%. The voters most familiar with these two California politicians are ready to dump Harris and back Newsom in 2028. At the same time, Harris is off in the political wilderness after her loss, while Newsom will leave office at the start of 2027 and be able to roll right into his presidential campaign.

Newsom also scratches all the progressive itches of the Democratic base, wielding a powerful Democratic primary resume that other candidates can’t match. As governor of California, Newsom has been at the forefront of some of the most extreme gun control proposals in the country, including his push in 2023 to enshrine gun control in the U.S. Constitution through a constitutional amendment. Newsom will boast about his high taxes on the rich, his push toward green energy, and every other left-wing priority that Democratic voters want and that California has imposed.

Pritzker’s progressive credentials in Illinois pale compared to Newsom’s in California, and no other Democratic candidate will attack Newsom for California’s failures, as California is the Democratic fever dream model for the country. Newsom has also made himself the face of Democratic gerrymandering, framing it to voters as part of that same “we must fight” narrative that Democrats want. Combined with Harris already having a presidential loss on her record, it is hard to see where any other Democratic candidates would have an advantage over Newsom in an open primary.

What does that mean for the general election?

Democrats won’t hit Newsom for California’s failures (at least not effectively), but that will be different in a general election. California’s issues are well-documented: failing energy policy causing the state to rely on the “dirty” energy it hastily tried to eliminate, including Newsom trying to save oil refineries so gas prices don’t soar higher right before his presidential run. California has the highest gas prices in the country, one of the highest tax burdens, and some of the worst-performing schools.

Newsom boasts about California’s gross domestic product, which ranks fourth in the world behind the U.S. as a whole, China, and Germany. Yet, California also has the highest poverty rate in the country. Newsom supports gun control for law-abiding Americans but wants soft penalties for career criminals.

However, what Newsom lacks in policy success is that he makes up for it in media sycophancy and Hollywood connections. Liberal establishment media have been infatuated with Newsom for years, and you can already count on the fact that they are preparing their “J.D. Vance or Ron DeSantis is worse than Donald Trump” stories for 2028. Newsom focused his governorship on pandering to celebrities, granting special carveouts for Hollywood during his COVID-19 crackdown on businesses and promising tax breaks for Hollywood studios. The enthusiasm among those Democratic groups, and among Democratic voters, will be at a fever pitch after another four years of Trump.

As a political talent, Newsom, while unimpressive, will also be the best that Democrats have offered in over a decade. Newsom will not be as repulsive to voters as Hillary Clinton was. Unlike Joe Biden, Newsom can speak in complete sentences without a script in front of him. Newsom has both of those advantages over Kamala Harris. He is no Barack Obama, but he doesn’t have to be, especially with the Democratic Party’s built-in institutional advantages in media and entertainment.

The most notable issue Democrats face is that the party’s brand itself is toxic. The New York Times detailed the party’s voter registration “crisis,” with Democrats losing 2.1 million registered voters between 2020 and 2024 while Republicans gained 2.4 million. A Wall Street Journal poll found that 63% of voters view the Democratic Party as out of touch. The poll also has the Democratic Party at -30 net favorability, the worst number since the outlet began tracking this question in 1990.

And yet, politics is a pendulum that inevitably swings back at some point. Even with their historic unpopularity, Democrats are expanding their polling lead in the generic congressional ballot by 3.9% as the 2026 midterm election cycle heats up. Trump’s approval is nearly five points underwater. While that is considerably better than most of his first term, it is underwater.

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If that negativity continues to fester, Newsom is not a toxic enough politician to counteract it. The White House has flipped parties in the last three presidential election cycles. If that is the new political trend for presidential elections, the Democratic Party nominee should have the momentum advantage in 2028, even with the party’s brand issues.

That nominee will likely be Newsom, who has all the advantages a Democratic presidential candidate would want in a primary. Newsom is the best-positioned Democrat to become president in 2028, and his candidacy in a general election cannot be dismissed out of hand by Republicans who recognize his failures in California. The country has become so polarized that any major party candidate is a real threat to win, including the governor of California, who has been brainstorming how to become president for the last several years.

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