President Donald Trump appeared to excuse President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to accept an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
Trump started the engagement well on Friday. The president graced the Russian leader with a red carpet reception at Alaska’s Elmendorf Air Force Base. But while he greeted Putin warmly, the president then had the U.S. military send a very different message. In a stark display of U.S. military power, Trump had Putin walk with him under an overflight by four F-35 fighter jets, a B-2 strategic bomber, and between an assembled line of F-22 fighter jets. It was a very public psychological gamesmanship that Putin revels in and will not have enjoyed. The public presentation of dominant strength over a potential adversary is a defining hallmark of Putin’s leadership style.
Unfortunately, Trump then strongly appeared to abandon his prior commitment to impose new sanctions on Russia absent Putin’s immediate commitment to join Ukraine in accepting a 30-day ceasefire. Following their meeting, Trump announced that while progress had been made on numerous issues, Russia had still not agreed to a ceasefire. Suggesting Trump’s embarrassment, the two leaders took no questions.
Trump had an opportunity to translate the theatrics of his earlier military display into political effect. He could have condemned the Russian leader for continuing this war, or even said he wasn’t happy about it and left the stage. Instead, the president celebrated Putin’s new economic relations offer and said he would talk to America’s NATO allies. Perhaps sanctions will follow those consultations, but Trump gave the distinct impression that Putin has earned himself a reprieve.
If that is the case, Trump will have once again been hoodwinked at the intersection of Putin’s KGB charm and his disingenuous dangle of opportunities beyond Ukraine. Trump is drinking from an obviously poisoned chalice when it comes to Russian business opportunities. After all, close economic engagement with Russia would necessarily betray far more lucrative economic relations with our European allies. It would also mean American CEOs running the gambit of making a lot of quick money, then flying out of high-story windows.
Trump forgets his power. Indeed, the manifestation of that power led Putin to request this meeting in the first place. The Russian leader was alarmed by Trump’s imposition of new U.S. tariffs on India over its continued purchase of Russian oil. Alongside similar exports to China and Turkey, Russia’s energy export industry is the critical ingredient of Putin’s revenue base. Facing a choice between access to the U.S. market and continued Russian imports, Putin knows these countries will ultimately choose their U.S. market access and find alternate energy suppliers. And that would be catastrophic for Putin’s ability to sustain his already struggling economy, his war machine, and the provision of basic government services to his people.
TRUMP PUTS ISRAELI FANATIC BEFORE US INTERESTS
As I noted on Wednesday, there was always a high risk that Trump would forget the critical purpose of this meeting by being “tempted by Putin’s offer of major economic deals inside Russia or cooperation on concerns related to Iran and North Korea.”
Perhaps I’m wrong, but Putin again appears to have manipulated Trump. The Russian leader’s dark jest that their next meeting should be in Moscow was a snarky (2018 soccer ball sequel) signal that he believes he holds the initiative. The KGB Red Banner Institute instructors will be smiling in their graves.