President Donald Trump celebrates the signing of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal, the latest notch in his quest for a Nobel Peace Prize.
“For more than 35 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a bitter conflict that resulted in tremendous suffering for both nations.… Many tried to find a resolution … and they were unsuccessful. With this Accord, we’ve finally succeeded in making peace,” Trump declared.
His optimism is admirable, but his ceremony was akin to a ribbon-cutting for a skyscraper only half built. Armenia and Azerbaijan previously agreed to peace in March 2025, only to then have Azerbaijan scuttle the deal with a demand that Armenia amend its constitution. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev embraces process over peace. So long as he talks, he can collect concessions and avoid implementing compromise. Armenian and international desperation for diplomacy means he can provoke without consequence; diplomats are loath to punish if they fear their target might walk away from the table.
If the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal is to move from ribbon-cutting to reality, all parties must calibrate their actions to reality rather than wishful thinking. It is against this backdrop that the Trump administration and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan should reject Azerbaijan’s latest demand that Armenia send packing the European Union Mission in Armenia.
The EU first dispatched monitors in 2023 to observe the ceasefire and chronicle violations of the Armenia-Azerbaijan frontier. In theory, monitors report violations going either direction. In practice, they are unidirectional. Azerbaijan continues to occupy Armenian territory, not the other way around. Even as Armenian and Azerbaijani negotiators demarcate their border based on Soviet General Staff maps, Azerbaijan already occupies close to 100 square miles of internationally recognized Armenian territory.
Azerbaijan has repeatedly listed its grievances about the European monitors: Azerbaijan never granted permission for the mission, but, with the monitors limited to Armenian territory, why should Azerbaijan have a say? Baku also complains that Europe and Armenia do not disclose their personnel. Again, though, why should Armenia provide information about unarmed people who work exclusively in Armenian territory? Azerbaijani officials now complain that the monitors get close to the border. Again, however, every square inch of Armenia is its sovereign territory; Azerbaijan has no more say about who travels where in Armenia than Americans have about who might visit Niagara Falls, Canada.
Indeed, being close to the border is the point. I have run across European monitors in Jermuk, just a mile or two from where Azerbaijan troops sit on Armenian territory. The monitors’ presence likely keeps Azerbaijani forces from advancing further.
Earlier this month, I visited the Syunik Airport in Kapan. The small airport sits in a mountain valley; at one point, its runway lies just 300 feet from the Azerbaijan border. Thrice-weekly flights must navigate carefully to avoid Azerbaijani territory; a single crosswind could cause a violation. Azerbaijan has repeatedly said it would shoot down planes that violate its airspace. Against such threats, European monitors observe every landing and take-off. There have not been any violations, but the fear remains that Azerbaijan will shoot down a passenger plane, falsely using airspace violation as a pretext.
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Azerbaijan argues that third-party monitors undermine peace. That is backward. Monitors guarantee peace. Observers chronicle violations and prevent atrocities. Aggression occurs best in darkness.
As President Ronald Reagan famously said, “Trust, but verify.” Given Azerbaijan’s record, it would be foolish for Armenia, the United States, or the EU to abandon monitoring. Indeed, if it wants peace to persevere, Europe should increase monitors across its 625-mile frontier. Trump brokered the agreement; it is not essential that he backfill the structure to ensure its respect.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is the director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.