The Kremlin readout of a call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Tuesday emphasized that the two men had discussed Putin’s upcoming talks in Alaska on Friday with President Donald Trump. Those talks will center on Trump’s push to see Putin accept an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine pledged to accept that ceasefire months ago.
The Kim call readout is clear signaling from Moscow to Washington.
Putin wants Trump to believe that he can either be a partner or a problem for the United States on matters beyond Ukraine. Putin knows that Trump’s first and most comfortable instinct is to view foreign relations through the prism of business transactions. As such, Putin is hoping to leverage his relationship with Kim to persuade Trump to avoid new sanctions on Russia. Putin’s motivation here flows from his increasingly difficult relationship with Trump.
As underlined by Trump’s new tariffs on India over its continued importation of Russian oil, Putin knows that Trump is considering new sanctions that would cause grave harm to the Russian economy and the revenue base that provides for his continued war effort. Without his energy export market, Putin’s revenue base would implode.
At the same time, however, Putin does not want to end his war on Ukraine unless he can secure concessions that would irreparably undermine Ukrainian sovereignty. Concessions that Trump both should not support and could not impose on Ukraine, even with the threat of a full withdrawal of U.S. support for Kyiv. That’s because Putin’s demands include Ukrainian territorial concessions that extend far beyond what Russian forces have already captured. Considering Ukraine’s ability to hold Russian forces to very limited territorial gains, this is rightly a nonstarter for Ukraine and its European allies (it should be a nonstarter for the U.S.). Putin also wants to prevent European peacekeeper deployments in Ukraine following any peace agreement. But those deployments would be of critical importance in deterring Putin from using any peace deal simply to reconstitute his military and invent another excuse to reinvade Ukraine 5, 10, or 15 years down the road. Finally, Putin wants Ukraine to provide Russia with a de facto veto on issues such as its future accession to the European Union, NATO, or other international fora.
In turn, Putin needs to introduce different levers of influence with Trump that, he hopes, will allow Russia to avoid new U.S. sanctions and buy time for its continued war effort. Putin will hope North Korea offers one means of action here.
After all, Putin knows that Trump values the personal relationship he struck up with Kim in his first term. Kim has also avoided new long-range ballistic missile tests since Trump took office, providing political space for new diplomacy. But that’s only one side of the coin. Because Kim has also received priceless Russian technical-scientific support for his nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile program in exchange for sending troops and ammunition to support Russia’s war effort. This is no small concern. The Washington Examiner understands that Russian support has allowed Kim to boost every element of his ICBM program across its missile, guidance, and warhead vehicle components. Put simply, Putin has helped Kim move far closer toward a missile that could far more credibly threaten the U.S. homeland.
Equally important, Putin knows that Trump will know this from his intelligence briefings. Indeed, it is probable that Putin is banking on his Tuesday call with Kim as having been intercepted by the U.S. National Security Agency or the U.K.’s equivalent GCHQ intelligence service. The Russians regularly inject theatrics into high-level calls, even on highly encrypted lines, in the hope that they can mislead listening American ears. This may seem like spy game sensationalism, but do not put it past Putin that one of his emissaries had briefed Kim in person on his hopes for this call a week or so ago (in-person communications are far, far harder to listen in on). And that he and Kim then agreed for Tuesday’s call to include something along the lines of “If Trump avoids new sanctions, we can have a trilateral conference to restart talks on a new North Korean nuclear agreement/if Trump allows me space, I’ll have to restrict your nuclear program, Kim.”
Putin knows Trump loves nothing more than the art of a diplomatic deal. But he also knows that Trump is more averse to the details of diplomacy than to its presentation. In much the same way, come Friday, Putin will likely offer Trump Russian pressure on Iran if Trump holds back from new sanctions. He’ll also likely again dangle the absurd idea (absurd, being that high-level investment in Russia almost inevitably ends up with accidental leaps out of high-story windows) that America can secure lucrative new investment opportunities inside Russia if peace talks continue without sanctions. And on the sharper side of the ledger, Putin may threaten Trump with military escalation if he pursues new sanctions (Trump should pay heed to why these threats would ultimately be facile).
PUTIN WILL ATTEMPT TO PLAY TRUMP IN ALASKA
Trump must stay fixed on the details in Alaska. His ambition to secure a just end to the war in Ukraine is a noble one. Putin remains the core obstacle to its fruition. Putin is currently playing the president for time and space. But Trump should remember that Putin’s motive is neither pure nor honest. He simply wants to avoid new sanctions that would limit his ability to spread mayhem in Ukraine and retain dominant control at home.
Trump should thus stand by his pledge on Wednesday that, unless Putin agrees to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, crippling new sanctions on his energy export partners and the central bank will follow. Let Putin keep playing games as his revenue well dries up and his people start asking why they’re no longer able to access basic services just so that their sons can keep being blown apart to win new meagre meters of Ukrainian soil.