With the Armenian–Azerbaijani peace initiative meeting planned this Friday at the White House, the stakes for Armenia, the first nation to adopt Christianity as its religion in 301 A.D., cannot be any higher. The country is facing total annihilation at the hands of its Muslim neighbors, interested in recreating the Ottoman Empire and its own incompetent leadership.
After enduring numerous assaults on its sovereignty and people, we are told the “peace agreement” will demand even further concessions of Armenia, by Azerbaijan and Turkey, the self-proclaimed “two countries, one nation.” Preeminent among the expected concessions are forcing Armenia to forfeit Nagorno-Karabakh and the “right of return” of its residents to their ancestral homeland and to surrender control of the so-called “Zangezur corridor,” part of sovereign Armenia.
Those who are ready to relinquish Nagorno-Karabakh should not forget that Armenia already lost more than three-quarters of its historic lands — as recognized by President Woodrow Wilson in his Arbitral Award of 1920 — to Turkey. However, the vision of the Allied powers that wanted to see a large independent Armenia, rising from the ashes of the genocide of 1915–18, did not materialize. In December 1920, Bolshevik Russia’s Vladimir Lenin joined forces with Turkey’s Mustafa Kemal Ataturk to split the young Armenian Republic in two. Nagorno-Karabakh, recognized by Wilson as part of Armenia, now under Russian control, was reassigned to a newly created Muslim country, Azerbaijan, by Joseph Stalin in July 1921.
However, there is no reason why the international community, especially the United States, should accept Stalin’s borders. Legally, the U.S. government never fully recognized the 1920 Soviet annexation of Armenia by the Red Army. For example, the U.S. hosted an Armenian Embassy in Washington through 1933 and, in 1959, designated Armenia as a “Captive Nation.” Even so, some pundits in Washington and internationally assume that the administrative borders between the Soviet Republics drawn by Stalin are legitimate borders between sovereign states.
Already weakened by its 2020 defeat during what is known as the “44-day war,” when Azerbaijan was aided by Turkey, Pakistan, and Syrian jihadists, Armenia has been further undermined by the leadership of its own Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. As a result of Azerbaijan’s aggression and Armenia’s relinquishing sovereignty, it has largely escaped notice that genuine authoritarianism is taking hold under Pashinyan’s crackdowns on political dissent, religious freedom, and private industries.
These failings have so deeply angered and demoralized Armenians that his approval rating has disintegrated from 86% to 8.2%. The Azerbaijani government’s nonstop rhetoric threatening Armenia is compounded by Pashinyan’s domestic repressions and tyrannical assault on its Christian church. Despite his “pro-Western” rhetoric, Pashinyan — a college dropout and a convicted felon — remains a puppet of Russia, opposed to any meaningful rapprochement with the U.S. His recent rant delivered in the parliament, mocking the U.S. for being a fickle ally on which “the Armenian people should not rely,” is a testament to that.
A dignified and lasting peace cannot be achieved by one-sided sacrifice pushed down one nation’s throat via its weak and unpopular leader, who would do everything to remain in power. Just as it did during the genocide of 1915-18, when the U.S. came to Armenia’s support politically and by raising billions of dollars in today’s money to help feed refugees and build orphanages, it can and should have the back of Armenians on Friday. This investment of goodwill by the U.S., if undertaken, will pay off handsomely in the form of Armenia’s future defense, diplomatic, and commercial partnerships in that hugely important part of the world and access to its vast mineral base.
When dealing with Azerbaijan — a country that expelled the entire population of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, holds dozens of Armenian POWs hostage, demands changes to the Armenian constitution, and keeps referring to Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan” — peace talks need to take action to be credible defenses for Armenia.
There is grave concern that Armenia is at risk of extinction by neighbors who are threatening its ancient Christian faith, sovereignty, and existence. What is taking place now in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia proper appears to be the continuation of the genocide and land grab begun by Ottoman Turkey in 1915.
WILL WASHINGTON CLOSE THE ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN DEAL?
One and a half million Armenians massacred in the first genocide of the 20th century was the cost of the world’s complacency then. At the peace discussions on Friday, friends of Armenia must defend its sovereignty and heritage as a Christian civilization and not allow its destruction.
Throughout history, between the adoption of Christianity as its religion and helping bring the Soviet Union to its knees in 1988–90, Armenia and Armenians have demonstrated their ability to punch above their weight. This time it will not be different: With some assistance to help Armenia reverse the malaise of the past 35 years, the sky is the limit to what this small nation can again bring to the table of human civilization.
David A. Grigorian, PhD., is a Research Fellow at the Center for Business and Government at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a nonresident fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.