Is it possible to build a big enough political coalition to prevent the election of a socialist mayor in an overwhelmingly Democratic city? That’s the test ahead of New York City voters in November.
Early indications are that the answer is yes, but it won’t be easy. Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic mayoral nomination by double digits in June. That is usually good enough to win the general election, and there are some signs that Democrats are coalescing around their radical young nominee.
But the verdict is far from unanimous. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Mamdani leads with 35% of the vote. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic runner-up who is running in the general election as an independent candidate, takes 22.7%. Republican Curtis Sliwa comes next at 18%. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is also still in the race as an independent, is holding on to 12.3%. It should be noted that most of this polling is from July.
Thirty-five percent is rather far from a majority, but in a four-way race, it is good enough. If New Yorkers don’t want a mayor who muses about seizing the means of production, globalizing the intifada, or defunding the police, they will need to settle on a viable alternative. Cuomo is the best-polling. Yet if you are a Republican voter in the Big Apple, you are probably not inclined to view the Cuomos as your savior. It is nevertheless difficult to see Mamdani losing if a Republican wins 15% to 20% of the vote.
Another way of looking at this dilemma: President Donald Trump has been weighing getting involved in the race. The New York Times has reported that he and Cuomo have discussed the contest, though the president has historically been closer to Adams. Trump could swing enough GOP voters to Cuomo to make the race more competitive, but he could just as easily produce a rally-around-the-nominee effect for Mamdani.
That’s clearly the way Mamdani sees it. “This should be a race about … who will make this city affordable, who will ensure that each and every New Yorker is safe, who will bring our city forward, not an audition for the best jester for Donald Trump and his billionaire supporters,” he told reporters after news of Trump’s interest in getting involved first broke. The New York Times put it more delicately in its subheadline: “The possibility that the president will seek to intercede could inject an element of unpredictability into an already fractious contest.”
That it could. The implications of Mamdani’s election would reach far beyond the five boroughs. He would instantly become a national model for directionless Democrats. That could redound to the GOP’s electoral benefit in the longer term, as the Democrats switch out the aging Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) for younger versions. Or it could simply lead to more left-wing misgovernment.
NEW YORK CITY WOULD MAKE GRAVE MISTAKE ELECTING MAMDANI
Four years of David Dinkins made even New York City ready to vote Republican, though it should be noted that Rudy Giuliani was competitive in the general election four years prior. Not so with Sliwa.
New Yorkers who wish to avoid this experiment are running out of time.