Responding to Hamas‘s refusal to lay down its arms and release Israeli hostages in return for an end to the conflict in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is set to authorize military action to secure the entirety of Gaza. The expanded Israel Defense Forces operation is expected to be approved following a Cabinet meeting on Thursday evening.
Israel controls approximately 75% of Gaza but will now attempt to secure the remaining 25%. Around 20 Israeli hostages are believed to remain alive in this outstanding area. But while Israel will be justified in acting, it must not rely upon air power to clear out the 25% of Gaza it does not yet control. An air power-centric military campaign would cause excessive civilian casualties and exacerbate an already serious humanitarian crisis.
Crucially, an air power-centric IDF campaign would also undermine United States national security interests by fueling global anti-American sentiments via perceived American diplomatic cover for the IDF’s actions. American policymakers must be astute to the fact that excess suffering in Gaza weakens U.S. relations with important allies such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and provides powerful recruiting propaganda for terrorist groups.
Regardless, the air power concern is a real one. The IDF’s ground combat units are exhausted, with reservists expressing increasing concern over their deployment rotas and the feasibility of their missions. As I noted last week, the military challenge facing Israel in Gaza is a profound one. A patient, methodical approach will be needed if forces are not to be overstretched.
It’s not just me saying this.
Israeli media report increasing tensions between the IDF leadership and Netanyahu over strategy in Gaza. Israeli opposition leaders are also credibly suggesting that Netanyahu’s war continuation strategy is being motivated in part by his coalition government’s reliance on the support of extremist ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Those fanatics support perpetual war.
The additional challenge posed by an air power-centric campaign is that it would wreak havoc on heavily populated civilian locales. Yes, Hamas hides behind civilians. Yes, Hamas revels in using civilian deaths as a propaganda tool. Yes, Hamas is primarily responsible for this entire situation by attacking Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Yes, Hamas has looted aid convoys and then sold their contents on the black market. But it is also true that Israel has too heavily restricted aid convoy routes within Gaza, forcing aid groups to hold their supplies in depots and massive gatherings of desperate civilians to overcrowd a small number of delivery points. Recent improvements to aid flows must be sustained, but that will be impossible if 2,000-pound bombs are leveling streets and buildings as aid convoys attempt to operate. As many nations, NGOs, and President Donald Trump himself have admitted, there is not enough food or medicine in Gaza. That cannot continue.
Nor is it in Israel’s broader strategic interest for this to continue. As Emily Jashinsky observes, this suffering is undermining support for Israel even among American conservatives. That should be a major strategic concern for Netanyahu’s government. The U.S. Marine Corps showed during its repeated 2004 operations against insurgents in Fallujah that aid can flow alongside robust ground combat operations.
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Israel has the moral authority and defensive right to go after Hamas in the rest of Gaza. The terrorists are holding innocent civilians and refusing to disarm after inflicting the greatest atrocity on Jews since the Holocaust.
But if Israel wants U.S. support for its continued military action, it must prosecute that military campaign wisely.