By every conventional historical measure, the Republican Party’s governing trifecta, control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, will come to an end in January 2027.
With few exceptions, the general trend of midterm elections for several decades has been that the party in the White House loses seats in the House of Representatives, as voters express their displeasure with various aspects of the chief executive’s agenda.
In fact, heading into every single midterm election cycle since 1994 save one, a party in control of a governing trifecta has subsequently lost it. The lone exception came in 2002, when Republicans, riding on post-9/11 goodwill for then-President George W. Bush, actually gained seats in the House and in the Senate, strengthening a governing trifecta they would not lose until the 2006 midterm elections.
But an uncomfortable truth for the Democratic Party and a welcome one for Republicans is that the 2026 cycle is already shaping up to be quite different from previous midterm elections. Of course, this hardly means that Republicans will maintain control of the House and their governing trifecta. But, less than a year and a half before the midterm elections, the party in power appears to have as good a shot as any to defy history and keep its Democratic rivals shut out of power for the duration of President Donald Trump’s term in office.
There are three primary reasons that the GOP can pull off this upset: the district map, fundraising, and public support for the two major parties. While all three come with an accompanying asterisk that the elections are still more than a year away, these trends seem to be more locked in than not.
The map of House districts
When Republicans flipped the House of Representatives in 2022 by a meager five seats, there was a sense that the party left a lot on the table. A promised red wave failed to materialize outside of Florida and New York, as the GOP scraped together a thin majority in the House. This seemed like a minimal rebuke of the Biden administration, especially after previous midterm elections yielded much larger swings in favor of the party out of power.
But much of this disappointment can be attributed to the fact that the number of competitive House districts is at an all-time low. In 2016, Republicans won the national popular vote for the House by 1 percentage point but won 241 seats, a much stronger majority than the GOP secured in 2022, when the party won the national popular vote by more than 2 points. In 2024, Republicans again won the national popular vote for the House, this time by a point and a half, but only secured a three-seat majority.
The simple reality is that opportunities to pad a majority are few and far between for either party. Both Republicans and Democrats have gerrymandered numerous states in a bid to limit the other party’s ability to compete. The Cook Political Report rates a meager 18 seats in the 2026 midterm elections as true toss-ups, of which 10 are held by Democrats and eight by Republicans. It’s a map that is not much changed from 2024, when 22 seats were rated as toss-ups, 12 held by Republicans, and 10 by Democrats. By contrast, the final ratings in 2018 featured 30 toss-ups, of which only one was held by a Democrat.
But even against that backdrop, Republicans head into 2026 with more obvious pick-up opportunities than the Democratic Party, which is defending 13 members who won their seats even as Trump received the most votes in the concurrent presidential election. Republicans, on the other hand, are only defending three seats in districts that were won by the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Effectively, this means that even if Democrats improve their national standing with voters in 2026, there is no guarantee that that will translate into more seats. Indeed, a number of Democratic incumbents could still lose reelection simply due to the partisan trends of their districts. And in the case that Republicans do lose the House, the Democratic majority will likely be as small as the GOP’s current majority.
Further bolstering Republican prospects is Trump’s effort to push Republican state legislatures to redraw House districts in several states, most notably Texas, which would yield the party additional seats even in an environment favorable to Democrats. While Democrats in California, New York, and elsewhere are looking for ways to redraw their own maps, legal and logistical hurdles will inhibit their ability to do so.
Fundraising
While having district electorates that are more favorable to Republican candidates will no doubt be a boost to the party’s prospects, campaigns that do not have enough money in the bank are destined to struggle, no matter the political trends among voters. But there, again, Republicans are showing remarkable resilience, while Democrats are struggling to keep up.
At least 10 Republican incumbents that Democrats plan to target next year have already raised more than $1 million, while only one Democratic incumbent targeted by Republicans has done the same. According to a recent Politico report, the median House Republican has raised $860,000, while the median House Democrat has raised $689,000, a remarkable difference given that the party out of power typically enjoys a fundraising boost from its angry supporters.
But that discrepancy is only one part of the GOP’s burgeoning cash advantage. According to Fox News, Trump’s political operation and the Republican National Committee are expected to secure a campaign war chest of nearly $1.5 billion over the next year. As it stands now, the RNC has $81 million in cash on hand, while the Democratic National Committee has only $15 million.
Public image
Trump and the GOP’s massive fundraising advantage has no doubt been aided in no small part by their political rivals suffering from a major public image crisis. Poll after poll has shown that the Democratic Party is woefully underwater with voters, while Republicans have largely held steady.
A recent poll from the Wall Street Journal conducted by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio and Democratic pollster John Anzalone found that the Democratic Party’s approval rating is 30 points underwater with the public, a 35-year low, while Republicans were only down 11 points.
DEMOCRATS BELIEVE ROY COOPER IS A ‘GAME-CHANGER’ IN NORTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE
That reality is a far cry from eight years ago. In 2017, Democrats had a negative approval rating of 9 points, while Republicans were below water by 15 points, a public image issue that presaged the coming blue wave in 2018. In the meantime, Trump’s approval ratings have consistently been higher than they were throughout his first term.
Of course, a year from now, things could look quite different. The president’s approval ratings could drop, Democrats could see their public approval rebound and fundraising strengthen, and gerrymandering efforts in Texas and elsewhere could falter. These factors would push the 2026 midterm elections back toward the historical trendline. But as of now, the Republican Party is as well-positioned as ever to defy history and keep its trifecta for another two years.