The Democratic Party may be planning to campaign against President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act “from now until November 2026,” but new polling shows it will need more than anti-Trump rhetoric to break up Republican control of the House and Senate next year.
Trump’s polling numbers may be underwater right now — the RealClearPolitics average shows 52% of people disapproving of his job as president compared to just 46% approving. But in 2017, the year before Democrats gained 41 House seats, flipping control of the chamber, Trump was much further behind, with 54% disapproving and just 40% approving. The 2017 deficit is more than double Trump’s current 6-point disapproval margin.
Democrats are also behind their 2017 pace when it comes to the generic congressional ballot. At this point in 2017, Democrats were up 48%-39% over Republicans. Today, they enjoy just a 46%-43% lead.
Democrats are facing some jaw-dropping headwinds, according to new Pew Research Center numbers. Today, a greater percentage of people, 46%, now say they are Republicans than say they are Democrats, 45%. In 2018, a full half of adults, 50%, identified as Democrats compared to just 42% who identified as Republicans. Today, Republicans have erased that deficit and pulled ahead. Over the past seven years, Republicans have gained ground with every demographic: 11 points with whites, 24 with blacks, 16 with Hispanics, 20 with Asians, 10 with men, and 9 with women.
Republican dominance shows up when voters are asked about specific issues as well. The latest Wall Street Journal poll shows a plurality of people disapproving, ranging from minus-3 to minus-17, of Trump’s job on immigration, foreign policy, looking out for middle-class families, the economy, vaccines, inflation, healthcare, and tariffs. The only issue where Trump still enjoys approval from a majority of voters is illegal immigration, where he holds a narrow 2-point advantage.
This should be great news for Democrats. But when the very same poll asked respondents which party they trusted more on each of those issues, Democrats lost all except healthcare (plus-14) and vaccines (plus-7). Despite not approving of Trump’s policies, voters still trust the Republican Party, ranging from plus-7 to plus-24 over Democrats on tariffs, foreign policy, inflation, the economy, immigration, and illegal immigration.
Given these numbers, it is not surprising that a record high 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. Democrats may think that stunts such as Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) making the longest Senate speech on record or Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) crashing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s press conference are what voters want to see, but it’s not. Only the most hardcore, far-left Democratic voters want to see Trump Resistance cosplay. Voters aren’t giving Republicans a 24-point edge on illegal immigration because Democrats aren’t fighting Trump’s deportations hard enough. Voters don’t trust Democrats on these issues because the party failed to deliver while in power, and it has not even tried to communicate how its views have changed.
And in states where Democrats are in power, such as California, Illinois, and New York, the Democratic Party is still failing to deliver lower energy prices, affordable housing, or safe and clean streets.
THE END OF THE HOMELESS INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
The most popular figure in the Democratic Party right now is New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, who is not only a member of the Democratic Socialists of America but has also proposed government-run grocery stores, rent control, and free healthcare. These ideas may win over New York City liberals, but they are not going to help Democrats win congressional races in suburban Phoenix and rural Iowa.
If Democrats want to regain Congress in 2026, they must offer voters more than anti-Trump theatrics. Polls show people are deeply skeptical of Trump’s record, yet they still trust Republicans more on key issues such as the economy, inflation, and immigration. That trust gap will not be closed with filibusters, press conference stunts, or socialist wish lists. It will require a credible agenda that addresses everyday concerns. Unless Democrats redefine themselves as a party of practical solutions, they risk watching Trump’s weak approval ratings translate into another two years of Republican control.