This week, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met face to face for the first time. Their mission: finalizing a peace agreement reached in principle in March.
“Armenia and Azerbaijan could strike a peace deal pretty soon,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said ahead of the leaders’ recent meeting. For the first time in decades, Moscow finds itself sidelined from mediating a conflict it once dominated. This has created an opening for American leadership.
The peace talks come after Armenia’s defeats in a 2020 war, and Azerbaijan’s swift offensive in September 2023 led to its regaining full control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. That also led to the exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Despite brokering the 2020 ceasefire, Russian peacekeepers stood by during the 2023 assault and began withdrawing from the region soon after at Azerbaijan’s request.
With Moscow abandoning its erstwhile Armenian partner, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has taken numerous steps to distance his country from Moscow. He has, in the absence of other obvious partners, also flirted with Tehran to counterbalance the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, has established close relations with Israel, with the latter being its major arms supplier and the former a key oil provider for Israel. Azerbaijan, allying with Turkey on most security questions, has nevertheless played a quiet role in bringing Israel and Turkey together to discuss regional tensions.
Left defenseless against Azerbaijan, Armenia has intensified its push to ally with the West. But hardly anyone in Washington had previously welcomed these efforts. Indeed, the Biden Administration had asked Armenia, as a high level source noted to me, to not rush the process of distancing itself from Moscow. The Trump administration now seems to want to play a more important role, at least publicly.
Pashinyan’s pivot away from Moscow has come at a political cost. Following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, pro-Russian opposition figures, media outlets, and the powerful Orthodox Church have mobilized against his government, accusing him of national betrayal. The Kremlin has quietly amplified these voices. But Moscow’s efforts have not proven successful. Having lost the first 2020 war, Pashinyan surprisingly comfortably won the next elections, largely thanks to public disdain for his predecessors that are tied to Russia for their corruption and mismanagement. This, however, could change.
As Armenia reckons with the consequences of its decades-long dependence on Moscow, it has also moved to normalize its long-fraught ties with Turkey. Turkey is seen by Armenia as its gateway to the West. But relations have long been strained over the mass killings of Armenians during WWI, which Yerevan calls genocide. And, of course, ties have been further complicated by Turkey’s close alliance with Azerbaijan and its backing of Baku in the conflict with Armenia.
Still, there are signs for optimism. Pashinyan visited Istanbul in June. He was the first Armenian leader to do so since the country gained independence after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
What are the obstacles to an Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement?
One is Azerbaijan’s request that Armenia change its constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh. This constitutional revision would require a nationwide referendum, a politically treacherous process for Pashinyan.
Another major hurdle involves transit rights to Nakhichevan, Azerbaijan’s landlocked exclave separated from the main country by Armenian territory. Azerbaijan demands unimpeded access to transport people and cargo between western Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan through Armenia’s southern Syunik region, what Azerbaijan calls the Zangezur Corridor. Armenia fears this could compromise its sovereignty and potentially cut off its own vital links to Iran.
WHY THE KREMLIN HAS DELEGATED ITS TRUMP REBUKES TO PUTIN
And this is where America’s role can prove decisive. The Trump administration has reportedly proposed that Armenian border and customs checks for transit to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave be outsourced to an American company. This third-party solution could break deadlock. It would address Azerbaijan’s core demand for unimpeded access to Nakhichevan while preserving Armenian sovereignty concerns. More importantly, it would position the United States as the essential guarantor of any final agreement, creating a long-term American presence in a strategically vital region that lies just across from the Iranian border.
Rubio’s optimism about an imminent deal suggests the Trump administration recognizes this historic opportunity. The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has endured for over three decades. It’s time for America to help bring peace and hope in place of Russian-enabled war and misery.