U.S. officials fear regime change. They dread instability and the unknown. In reality, naysayers are seldom right. Post-World War II Germany and Japan show that regime change can work. The problem in Afghanistan and Iraq was less regime change than misguided nation-building and wishful blindness to Iranian and Pakistani interference. Regardless, today, Iraq is not the failed state many Americans assume; it has a booming economy and youthful energy, even if it has a Wild West-meets-1930s Chicago vibe. The verdict is not yet in on Syria as Ahmad al-Sharaa’s sectarian vigilantism and his family’s monopolization of the economy suggest he is little more than a Sunni version of Bashar Assad.
Some regime change is inevitable. Even prior to the 12-day Israel-Iran war, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, 86, is in poor health as he has had cancer and is partially paralyzed. Iranians were openly discussing his succession. Sudden hand-wringing that a further extremist Islamist regime might replace Khamenei is not realistic, and is meant to derail support for regime collapse. At worst, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shares the same ideology of the clergy without its theological claims to legitimacy. To rescue the Islamic Republic, a state sponsor of terror and nuclear aspirant, would be to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
While President Donald Trump’s inner circle may believe they have successfully side-stepped regime change in Iran, a misguided decision as the Islamic Republic has embarked upon a campaign of arrests and summary execution that could turn one of most pro-American peoples against the U.S., whom they see as guilty of betrayal, there will be no avoiding Cuba’s coming collapse.
As Juan Belt, a specialist in Latin American energy and economics, points out, Cuba’s current electricity crisis could be the death knell for a crumbling regime. Over the past 14 months, there have been 12 nationwide blackouts, some lasting several days. Cuba’s energy infrastructure is on life support. Even though Venezuela replaced the Soviet Union as a source of subsidized oil, a lack of maintenance and the use of high-sulfur crude oil as fuel have damaged Cuba’s generating plants beyond repair. U.S. sanctions on Venezuela will likely suppress its ability to subsidize Cuba.
Meanwhile, the Communist triumvirate that governs Cuba behind figurehead President Miguel Díaz-Canel makes Khamenei look like a spring chicken. Raúl Castro, for example, is 94.
Twenty years ago, as health problems forced Fidel Castro’s resignation, the George W. Bush administration planned actively for the Communist regime’s collapse. Today, neither President Donald Trump nor Secretary of State Marco Rubio has a plan for Cuba’s transition, even though the flight of 10% of the population in just two years shows Cuba’s human capital is bleeding out.
As the government loses control, Cuba’s economy will crash. As Belt points out, the Communist government forces doctors and other professionals to serve overseas essentially as slaves for the state, which pockets their salaries. This scheme would end overnight, losing Cuba perhaps $3.6 billion. The loss of profits from state-managed dollar stores and taxes on remittances will cost Cuba another $2 billion. Absent such revenue streams, the government will not be able to pay for its 79,000 soldiers, 17,000 Interior Ministry employees, or 9,000 national police.
The danger is not only humanitarian but also strategic. Organized crime, gangs, and drug cartels could seek to establish themselves in any vacuum that a lack of U.S. preparation enables. In a worst-case scenario, should the United States not deploy forces, Cuba could become a second Haiti.
STATE DEPARTMENT LISTS CUBA AS NONCOOPERATING COUNTRY OVER HARBORING TERRORISTS
Meanwhile, the international community will need to jumpstart Cuba’s economy with $5-10 billion. Managed privatization can blunt costs. Dispatching diaspora experts could help Cuba modernize and reintegrate, while updated zoning and laws can protect its unique culture.
After 65 years of stasis, Communist rule in Cuba is ending, perhaps even this year. Avoiding planning will not stop a regime change. It will only guarantee the worst possible outcome for both the Cuban people and the United States.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is the director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.