An army might still march on its stomach, but today’s U.S. military cannot fight China without an umbrella.
That truth bears urgent reemphasis. China’s People’s Liberation Army possesses an arsenal of thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles. Each year, even more missiles are added to this already highly formidable inventory. Many of these missiles have truly vast ranges and highly redundant targeting capabilities (the United States will not be able to blind them from hitting their targets). And in any war with the U.S. over Taiwan, the PLA would use its missiles in saturation strikes on U.S. military bases on Guam, the Philippines, and Okinawa, and U.S. Navy warships in the Pacific Ocean.
To blunt that onslaught, the U.S. military needs air defense munitions that can bring down PLA missiles after they are launched. Some top Pentagon officials are uncomfortably aware of this looming crisis. Now, it’s time for the White House and Congress to wake up to the problem.
After all, recent conflicts in the Middle East have seen the U.S. military expend large numbers of the most valuable and highly finite air defense munitions. The U.S. conflict with the Houthi rebels in Yemen had, as of January, seen the Navy fire 120 SM-2 missiles, 80 SM-6 missiles, and a variety of 20 ESSM/SM-3 missiles. But that was just in January. Dozens more of these munitions were subsequently employed in the Trump administration’s successful effort to compel an end to Houthi attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea.
The Israeli-U.S. conflict with Iran last month saw a new degradation of air defense stocks. Estimating 39 of the Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors were used in Israel’s defense, Arms Control Wonk’s Sam Lair observed, “The budget projects only 32 THAADs will be procured in FY 2026, so more than an entire year’s worth of interceptors were fired in twelve days (The production rate in FY 2025 was only 12 interceptors).”
Some estimates suggested that perhaps 60-80 interceptors, or 15%-20% of the U.S. military’s total THAAD interceptor inventory, were used in the conflict. Depletion of THAAD interceptors is particularly concerning due to their instrumentality in defending Guam and Okinawa. The U.S. Navy also engaged Iranian ballistic missiles with its SM-3 weapons.
Making matters worse, the current speed of production for these weapons is woefully inadequate. Limited but insufficient investments are being made by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon to build out the industrial capacity, skilled labor, and component parts needed to make more air defense munitions quickly. Last week, the acting head of the Navy, Adm. James Kilby, testified to Congress that when it came to SM-3 weapons, “we are using them at an alarming rate.” While Kilby sought to reassure Congress that the Navy retains flexibility, others closer to the China concern are far more concerned.
Late last year, even before the recent conflict with Iran and the height of the conflict with the Houthis, Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the military’s Indo-Pacific Command, warned that Patriot air defense munition expenditures in Ukraine meant, “Inherently, it imposes costs on the readiness of America to respond in the Indo-Pacific region, which is the most stressing theater for the quantity and quality of munitions, because [China] is the most capable potential adversary in the world. We should replenish those stocks and then some. I was already dissatisfied with the [arms stockpile], and I’m a little more dissatisfied with the [arms stockpile since the start of the war in Ukraine]. You know, it’s a time for straight talk.”
This is unusually blunt and politically tinged language from a top military officer. But coming from the admiral who would command U.S. forces in the event of war with China speaks volumes. And again, the point bears emphasizing that Paparo’s comments preceded the recent Middle East conflicts.
Put simply, Paparo must be heard louder both inside and outside of the Pentagon. The U.S. military is undeniably overstretched by its current taskings in the Middle East. But a successful Chinese conquest of Taiwan would bear catastrophic consequences for the stability, prosperity, and freedom of the U.S. and its allies.
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Reflecting this crisis, President Donald Trump and Congress should allocate emergency funds to dramatically upscale the production capacity and procurement of weapons that might make the difference between defeat and victory in the likely coming war. They should prepare penalties against Lockheed and Raytheon for delivery delays and bonus payments for beating delivery estimates. Where necessary, they should also limit the future deployment of these defensive systems in Ukraine and Israel.
Because a grave war, the likes of which have not been seen since 1945, is likely coming. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told the PLA to be ready to successfully conquer Taiwan by 2027. Many U.S. military analysts believe that an invasion will come by 2030.