When Donald Trump descended the golden escalator at Trump Tower a decade ago, everything in the Republican Party changed instantly. Almost overnight, the businessman-turned-reality-star-turned-presidential-candidate remade the GOP on an array of well-documented issues, ranging from border security to domestic energy, tariffs, and foreign policy.
During that same summer of 2015, another event occurred where President Trump did not receive the credit he deserved: Obergefell v. Hodges, the landmark 2015 U.S. Supreme Court case that affirmed the right to marry for same-sex couples.
In a 2016 post-election interview, as the dust was settling on the case and his victory, President Trump stated his support for the ruling, saying: “It was settled in the Supreme Court. I mean it’s done. These cases have gone to the Supreme Court. They’ve been settled. And I’m fine with that.”
This was not an isolated incident. It was a consistent approach on an issue that deviated not only from historic GOP orthodoxy, but also from where prominent Democrats stood. In the 2008 Democratic primary, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton opposed same-sex marriage.
In his 2016 Republican National Convention speech, Trump became the first GOP standard-bearer to elevate gay rights in a nomination address, pledging, “to do everything in my power to protect our LGBTQ citizens from the violence and oppression of a hateful foreign ideology.”
Then, in 2024, Trump removed formal opposition to same-sex marriage in the party platform.
Trump’s view was not an outlier among the broader electorate or his fellow Republicans. A Gallup survey from June 2023 found 71% of Americans believed same-sex marriage should be legal, including more than half (55%) of Republicans.
The numbers offer an illustrative lesson for the GOP heading into next year’s midterms and beyond: The issue of marriage equality is settled in the eyes of voters, and attempts to re-litigate past battles are politically perilous.
As someone who has been involved in all three Trump campaigns, whether as a campaign pollster or for one of the sanctioned Trump SuperPACs, I have seen this trend firsthand. In fact, according to new data from my firm, National Research, conducted in partnership with Redbud Consulting and Echelon Insights, a clear majority of Republicans (56%) continue to support same-sex marriage. Voters not only see same-sex marriage as non-controversial, but over three-quarters hold either a positive or neutral opinion on same-sex marriage, with nearly half (44%) believing it is “a good thing for society.”
Of all the messages we tested, stating President Trump’s support for marriage equality was the clear runaway winner. A whopping 71% of Republicans we surveyed found President Trump’s position compelling.
Republicans would be wise to take their cue from the president, especially to remain competitive in purple and swing parts of the country where the party made major inroads last year. Even in redder parts of America, attacks on marriage equality are risky. This spring, efforts undermining Obergfell were defeated by Republican lawmakers in states like Oklahoma and North and South Dakota.
There are three immediate reasons for this trend.
First, the freedom to marry for same-sex couples has become part of our culture. A decade past Obergefell, a once controversial idea has become ingrained in our society.
Second, the principles of marriage equality are consistent with those who lean conservative. According to a 2024 study from the RAND Corporation, a leading nonpartisan research organization, marriage equality led to stronger families, healthier communities, more efficient use of taxpayers’ money, and a better environment for children — all principles compatible with limited government.
Third, opponents’ two main arguments that marriage equality would undermine traditional marriage or hurt children are not supported by numbers or data. The 2024 RAND Report made clear that there is no empirical basis for concerns that allowing same-sex couples to marry negatively affects society at large.
WHY I CHANGED MY MIND ON GAY MARRIAGE
To be sure, the debate over transgender issues is less settled nationally, especially the fairness of biological men participating in women’s sports.
But when it comes to marriage equality, the numbers are clear: it’s become ingrained in our cultural fabric and taking a position that runs counter to that of President Trump — not to mention a majority of registered Republicans — is a political unforced error.
Adam Geller is the CEO of National Research Inc. He has more than 30 years experience as an opinion researcher and played a role in all three Trump presidential campaigns, either as a campaign pollster (2016) or SuperPAC pollster (2020 and 2024).