President Donald Trump announced the end of the “12 Day War” between Israel and Iran on Monday. Both countries flirted with the agreed-upon ceasefire deadline, prompting some colorful language from the president. But, at least for now, the war is over.
Despite reports by CNN and the New York Times citing unnamed sources claiming dubiously that the 360,000 pounds of bunker-busting ordnance dropped by American B-2 bombers on Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility did little damage, Israeli intelligence confirmed that the installation was heavily damaged. Iran’s nuclear capabilities were likely set back a decade or more, and Israel’s nearly two weeks of intense bombing of Iranian military assets and the targeted assassination of hundreds of regime officials and nuclear scientists further dismantled Iran’s ability to make war on its neighbors and threaten the world with its nuclear program.
No American or Israeli soldiers or airmen were killed, and Iran only managed to kill a couple dozen Israeli civilians over the course of the 12-day missile exchanges. Reports out of Iran vary wildly, but an estimated 600 or more Iranians, mostly regime-affiliated, were killed, and 95% of Iranian ballistic missiles were intercepted by Iron Dome or American, Jordanian, and Qatari assets in the region. No military conflict is without significant risk, but, for the first time in the 21st century, the United States engaged in a significant Middle Eastern conflict without the mission ending in disaster.
No political commentator who has been in the business for more than five seconds has avoided the occasional mistake. Lord knows, I’ve made my fair share over the years, but the grifter class, particularly on the political Right, got this one aggressively wrong from the jump, none more than Tucker Carlson. None of Carlson’s doomsday prophecies had even a tangential relationship with reality.
“The first week of a war with Iran could easily kill thousands of Americans,” he said. “It could also collapse our economy, as surging oil prices trigger unimaginable inflation. Consider the effects of $30 gasoline.”
The price of oil has remained virtually static over the course of the war and its aftermath.
Carlson also claimed that the BRICS nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, would come to Iran’s aid despite the fact that the economic partnership has no military alliance with Iran, or anyone else, and he warned of Iran’s military alliance with Russia, claiming that the U.S. would lose the coming war. Of course, Russia gave Iran the cold shoulder faster than it withdrew from Syria at the first sign of trouble last December. And China, instead of throwing its weight behind the Iranian regime, actively worked to dissuade the Iranians from closing the Strait of Hormuz.
TRUMP INSISTS ‘TOTAL OBLITERATION’ OF IRAN NUCLEAR SITES, PROMISES LEAK INVESTIGATION
There was cause for concern: Our nation has been embroiled in endless wars in the Middle East since 9/11. The Iraq War was perhaps the greatest foreign policy failure since the Vietnam War and resulted in the deaths of over 4,400 American military personnel and between 110,000 and 460,000 Iraqi civilians, depending on which reports you believe. Trump, however, campaigned against the foreign policy of former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and never once spoke of “boots on the ground” or “nation building” in Iran. The troop buildup for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 took over six months, and, of course, no such buildup for Iran took place, or was even discussed.
War makes us nervous, and for good reason. But it was clear to everyone analyzing the situation in good faith that Iran is no Iraq, and Donald Trump is no George W. Bush. Predictions of “World War III” were ridiculous, and American involvement in the war lasted as long as it took to get B-2s from Missouri to Iran and back.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a musician, political strategist, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.