Conventional wisdom says the 2028 Republican nomination for president is a lock: Vice President JD Vance will carry the MAGA torch into the GOP’s post-Trump era.
Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN), a longtime advocate of Vance, recently said he “will be the nominee in 2028 — mark my words.”
He added, “After President Trump, [Vance] is the next best thing.”
Banks’s comments reflect a growing aura of inevitability surrounding Vance’s eventual nomination. But with 31 months to go before the Iowa caucuses, there is ample time for events to reshape this perception. Inherent disadvantages for vice presidents seeking their party’s nomination after a two-term presidency, shifting party fault lines, and unpredictable political storms on the horizon all complicate his path to the 2028 GOP nomination.
Despite real strengths that cement his early position, crowning Vance as the heir to MAGA this far out is premature.
Vance’s strengths
From 30,000 feet, the fundamentals look good for a Vance 2028 nomination bid as of today.
History shows that a winning GOP primary campaign should hope to garner at least 45% of the primary electorate. That number, earned by President Donald Trump in 2016, marks the lowest total won during a contested primary of the past 50 years.
According to an Economist-YouGov survey conducted between May 9 and 12, Vance is viewed favorably by 77% of Republicans, with 51% viewing Vance “very favorably.”
Crucially, Vance is viewed as a Trump loyalist, and in turn, the MAGA base, which is now the GOP base, appears loyal to him. Vance has embraced Trump’s worldview and style, and thus far, their political partnership has been harmonious, with little daylight appearing between the two in public.
The only possible moment of incongruity came when the infamous Signal chat emerged, in which Vance had criticized the strikes in Yemen, saying, “I think we are making a mistake,” and, “I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now.” White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller was seen as putting the vice president in his place, writing, “As I heard it, the president was clear.”
But for the MAGA base, including its most prominent influencers, the incident only deepened their affection for Vance, who they view as a bulwark against neoconservative influence within the administration.
Vance’s support among MAGA influencers is unwavering. Tucker Carlson, speaking at a Heritage Foundation event, described Vance as “the future. Period. … JD Vance is the best I’ve ever met. He’s the combination of intelligence, decency, wisdom, emotional self-control.” Influential MAGA darling Laura Loomer recently predicted a Vance-Trump Jr. ticket for 2028. And influencer Jack Posobiec of Pizzagate fame frequently refers to Vance as “48” and sells T-shirts with Vance’s face on them. (Vance appears to return the affection, having blurbed Posobiec’s latest book.)
The large, engaged audiences of these New Right media figures make their endorsements critical in GOP primaries.
Vance is also a media machine unto himself. Since stepping onto the national stage last year, no Republican figure, including Trump, has delivered more powerful media moments of the “own the libs” variety than Vance. His rebuke of CBS News’s Margaret Brennan, which included the now-famous quip, “I don’t really care, Margaret,” in response to her criticism of the Trump administration’s pause of the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, went super viral on X and drew over 1.7 million views on YouTube within 24 hours.
Vance’s exceptional “memeability,” underscored by the endless images shared daily of edited versions of Vance’s face superimposed on other bodies, is a powerful attribute in the social media age. Like his boss, Vance has proven able to harness the internet’s chaotic energy, riding the wave of the zeitgeist to cement his place as a cultural and political lightning rod.
Meanwhile, his often blunt and polarizing sound bites are the perfect online fodder for the highly engaged Republican voters. His bond with the famously tempestuous MAGA faithful seems only to deepen with time, an accomplishment of which only a few beyond the Trump family can boast.
Vance’s ability to dominate debates is another strength in a primary process heavily influenced by debate performances. Though his debate resume is limited — the only two of his short political career are his 2022 Senate debate with former Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan and his 2024 vice presidential debate against Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) — his commanding performances in both suggest a mastery of the format. His showing against Walz impressed so much that commentators speculated at the time that the field for 2028 might already be cleared.
Causes for concern
For all of these formidable strengths, a Vance bid for the GOP nomination faces significant obstacles.
Vice presidents generally have had a difficult time securing their party’s nomination. Not counting former Vice President Kamala Harris, who was given the nomination without a vote, and former President Joe Biden, whose run came four years after leaving office, only three sitting vice presidents have become their party’s subsequent standard-bearer in the past 50 years: Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush, and Al Gore — a group that only produced one general election winner.
The reasons vice presidents struggle here are manifold. For one, they are saddled with the record and popular approval of the outgoing president, and in the modern era, administrations tend to end with a whimper, not a bang. One exception is former President Bill Clinton, who, aided by an overzealous impeachment effort by Republicans and a resilient economy, saw his popularity rise in the waning days of his presidency. This aided Gore’s effort to fend off a strong primary challenge from Bill Bradley. The electorate, including primary voters, is often hungry for change after two full terms of a presidency. George H.W. Bush’s successful bid following his stint as Ronald Reagan’s vice president is the exception, not the rule.
Whether Trump’s second term will end on a soaring note or a nadir will largely be determined by the state of the economy. The tumultuous nature of Trump’s tariff war makes it difficult to forecast. Vance’s fortunes will be tied to the trade war’s outcomes, and perhaps explicitly with whispers that Trump is considering Vance to become the administration’s “tariff czar.” Such an appointment would carry the ultimate boom or bust potential for a 2028 run at the White House.
Numerous other unknowns color the coming primary battle. While Vance appears to have the support of the extremely loyal MAGA base, there is plenty of time for Trump and Vance’s relationship to go south. High-profile relationships with Trump end poorly more often than not, with Elon Musk as the latest example.
Vance accusing Trump of ignorance in the Signal chat is an isolated incident insofar as we know. History shows that it doesn’t take much for a Trump insider to become a Trump pariah.
To be sure, Vance’s standing within the MAGA movement remains entirely in Trump’s hands. It is inconceivable that anyone of whom Trump disapproves could win the 2028 nomination. Friction could emerge between the two on numerous issues. Trump’s sudden reversal on deporting farm and restaurant workers contrasts sharply with the immigration priorities of Vance’s New Right backers, who emphasize the notion that illegal labor drives down wages for American workers in low-skill sectors.
The president’s spat with Carlson over the definition of “America First” foreign policy in relation to Israel’s war with Iran presents another possible point of conflict between Trump and Vance. Carlson fumed at Israel’s strike and blasted the U.S. as “complicit in the act of war” that contradicts the movement’s isolationist stance. Trump countered by telling the Atlantic that the “America First” movement isn’t a fixed set of ideas but whatever Trump wants it to be.
“Well, considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America First,’ and considering that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides that,” he said.
The issue of life is another area for possible disagreement. Since being tapped as Trump’s vice president, Vance, once a stalwart anti-abortion senator, has adapted his views on access to mifepristone and a national abortion ban. But a primary that includes anti-abortion challengers would force him to break with the president or defend the administration’s spotty pro-life record. Both options come with their own set of political risks.
So far, Vance appears to enjoy broad support among the pro-life movement’s leaders despite embracing views that run counter to the cause. Vance’s public vow to maintain access to the abortion pill and his active promotion of in vitro fertilization, both positions that conflict sharply with the Catholic Church and the broader pro-life movement, could open the door for a pro-life primary challenger to siphon off votes.
Vance’s relative youth and political inexperience also raise questions about his inevitability. Vance, whose national political career is only a few years old, has only run two races against deeply flawed opponents: Ryan and Harris-Walz. A primary battle against a Republican heavyweight, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio or Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, would easily be his most difficult political test. It’s unclear how Vance would hold up during the lengthy primary process against robust competition.
Vance’s brand of politics is another area of concern. His obvious intellectual capabilities draw rave reviews from the post-liberal intelligentsia. But his severe demeanor, seen in intense exchanges on social media and in interviews with mainstream journalists, may alienate voters beyond his online base.
An indispensable aspect of Trump’s political effectiveness is his sense of humor and ability to connect with ordinary people. For every rage-filled, all-caps Truth Social post, there’s a genuinely hilarious joke at a MAGA rally or a photo shoot hanging from a McDonald’s window. Vance has not demonstrated the ability to shift gears in this way. It’s one thing to be an impressive intellect and another altogether to be liked. People like Trump. The jury is still out on Vance.
It’s also unclear what will become of the GOP primary electorate post-Trump. Will MAGA factionalize once its founding father steps off the stage? Will Vance’s high unfavorable ratings — as of today, the RealClearPolitics polling average has Vance’s approval rating at 42% and his disapproval at 45% — enable a primary opponent to argue credibly that he isn’t the party’s best general election nominee? Would the prospect of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as president worry enough primary voters to take this concern seriously?
Trump himself believes the race is wide open.
DEMOCRATS NEED ANOTHER SISTER SOULJAH MOMENT
“You look at Marco, you look at JD Vance, who’s fantastic,” Trump told Kristen Welker on Meet the Press. “You look at — I could name 10, 15, 20 people right now just sitting here.”
Vance is likely the front-runner as of now, but with years of uncertainty ahead, Banks’s prediction is hasty. The 2028 GOP primary is wide open, and many plot twists await between now and Super Tuesday.
Peter Laffin is the deputy commentator editor of the Washington Examiner.