Delivering the keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron adopted a slightly more skeptical assessment of China.
Macron repeatedly emphasized that France doesn’t “want to be confrontational with China.” Instead, he wants “de-risking, no confrontation, but clearly strategic autonomy.” This reference to strategic autonomy is a long-standing Macron narrative. It reflects his belief that the European Union must adopt a separate foreign policy pathway outside of the traditional U.S.-led orbit. But relevant to the Pacific arena, Macron often uses the term to woo China in the belief that he resists U.S. efforts to constrain Chinese threats. Macron has also leveraged France’s membership in international fora such as the G7 to protect Chinese interests.
Of course, Macron knows that his U.S. trading and security relationship is also of critical importance. So he must dance a delicate waltz, balancing France’s historic alliance with the United States with his seduction of Chinese President Xi Jinping and growing access to the Chinese economy. Macron said that China was a “friend” but added that the U.S. was a “friend and ally.” This balancing act has previously paid off for France: China has repeatedly called on other nations to replicate Macron’s strategic autonomy initiative. But with China now supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine and escalating its own threats to seize Taiwan, Macron appears a little less satisfied with his all carrots, few sticks China strategy.
Macron said that he wanted France to be a Pacific “force for peace and equilibrium.” And while he was careful to avoid directly criticizing China, he did have some rejoinders that were obviously targeted at Xi’s regime. He warned that North Korea’s direct military support for Russia in its war against Ukraine was motivating him to reconsider whether NATO should adopt an Asia-Pacific agenda. Noting that he has opposed NATO’s expansion of interests to the Pacific because “I don’t believe in being involved in someone else’s strategic rivalry,” Macron added that China’s tolerance of North Korea’s support for Russia was unacceptable. He concluded that “if China doesn’t want NATO being involved in South East Asia or Asia, they should prevent [North Korea] from being engaged on European soil.”
Macron also condemned nations that were moving to seize territory, establish “spheres of coercion,” and “crowd out others from the benefits” of these territories in places such as Ukraine (a reference to Russia) and the South China Sea (a reference to China). Again, these are stronger than usual critiques of China. Macron’s challenge is that he has let Xi see him as a wholly subservient partner who can be corralled to Beijing’s agenda via the dangling of occasional big investments. This has been clear even in relation to Sino-French interchanges in relation to the war in Ukraine.
Still, Macron’s Shangri-La speech also carried some criticisms of the U.S.
Noting the “potential erosion of long-term alliances,” Macron lamented that the collapse of the “rules-based trade order” would undermine our “prosperity.” It’s a complaint that should concern Americans. After all, France is our oldest ally. Macron’s frustrations highlight where Trump’s MAGA maximalism ultimately finds its most hollow point.
By alienating historic allies and reducing the economic power of their citizens, Trump undermines the central foundation of what has made America strong and wealthy: the impulsive engagement of America and other free peoples in mutually beneficial cooperation.
This is a problem.
France engages closely with the U.S. Navy in the Pacific, particularly with regard to attack submarine operations. France also recently deployed a carrier strike group to the Pacific in what Macron said was a move to bolster the “interoperability” of French forces with regional counterparts and send a “strategic signal.” Put simply, Trump should be pressuring Macron to get on board with efforts to check China’s trade, military, and espionage aggression. His foolish tariffs poorly predispose France and other allies to favor America. And we will need that favor when China attacks Taiwan.
ISRAELI SETTLEMENT EXPANSIONS IN THE WEST BANK UNDERMINE US INTERESTS
Being that this is Macron, arrogance lurked beneath the surface of this speech. We saw this when Macron celebrated the “willingness of the Europeans to build their independence in terms of defense and security.” Rather strikingly left out here is the fact that it was not until Trump was reelected and his calls for fairer burden-sharing by Europe were restored that Europeans committed to more sizable defense budgets. The recent record is clear. When Joe Biden was president in 2023, the U.S. sent 100 aircraft to a major NATO air defense exercise in Germany. Macron sent just one. And even then, newly boosted European defense budgets are warped by too many budgetary gimmicks.
Macron’s policy positions are always veiled in beautiful language but also a very large degree of unpredictability. But this speech did at least show a little more French backbone in the face of China’s growing disdain for European and international security.