As multiple countries begin deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghans to their homeland, economic difficulties and a lack of institutional support may provide fertile ground for recruitment for any of the two dozen terrorist groups utilizing Afghanistan as a base of operations.
On April 3, Pakistan began efforts to deport many of the 3.5 million Afghans who have taken up residence in the country during decades of conflict as part of its Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Program. A spokesperson from the United Nations International Organization for Migration told the Washington Examiner that between the outset of the program and May 12, Pakistan has deported 128,638 Afghans. The spokesperson said that an additional 1.5 million Afghans could be deported throughout the year.
In the neighboring Islamic Republic of Iran, Afghans have faced not just mass deportation, but also execution. In 2022, Iran executed 16 Afghans. The number rose to 25 in 2023 and 80 in 2024. Thus far in 2025, 25 Afghans have been executed.
The IOM spokesperson said that between January and April, nearly 310,000 Afghans were deported from Iran, 73% of whom were returned forcibly.
“Afghanistan’s limited resources and weakened infrastructure make it difficult to absorb the rising number of returnees,” the spokesperson explained. ”Continued funding shortfalls are further straining local systems, putting both returnees and host communities at risk of losing access to essential services.”
Returnees may soon include around 10,000 Afghans whose Temporary Protected Status is set to expire in July following the Department of Homeland Security’s May 13 determination that supposed improvements in security, economy, and tourism render Afghans ineligible for protection.
The decision highlights the U.S. government’s short memory. George Glezmann, whom the Trump administration saved from more than two years of Taliban custody in March, was arrested by the Taliban while traveling through Afghanistan as a tourist in 2022.
The U.S. Department of State Level 4 travel advisory for Afghanistan still notes that “multiple terrorist groups are active in Afghanistan and U.S. citizens are targets of kidnapping and hostage-taking,” and adds that “even if you are registered with the appropriate authorities to conduct business, the risk of detention is high.”
“The Taliban do not regularly permit the United States to conduct welfare checks on U.S. citizens in detention, including by phone,” the advisory continues. “Detention can be lengthy. While in detention, U.S. citizens have limited or no access to medical attention and may be subject to physical abuse.”
Jason Howk, Director of Global Friends of Afghanistan, told the Washington Examiner that the rationale provided for TPS removal shows that “whoever is doing the reporting these days on Afghanistan is flat-out lying to the administration.” Howk explained that the sunny news about Afghanistan’s improvements “runs contradictory to all of the Afghan press I read every day” about the Taliban “still hunting down the [Afghan National Defense and Security Forces], hunting down women, raping, torturing, throwing bodies in the street, disappearing people. It’s still happening every day.”
Howk said, “We’re going to send our allies back to slaughter.”
Large numbers of deportations are also likely to harm any gains the Afghan economy has experienced. Independent researcher Hamayun Khan told the Washington Examiner that “exacerbated by poor governance, the Afghan economy continues to struggle with increased poverty, high-rate unemployment, stagnated per capita income and growing inflation.”
He said “unprecedented” numbers of returnees will lead to “limited livelihood options and challenging economic reintegration,” thus “overburden[ing] the domestic labor market and sharply reduc[ing] remittance inflow … at a time when over 14.8 million people already face acute food insecurity.”
Khan said that “without significant international humanitarian assistance, Afghanistan will risk further economic destabilization.”
Deportations also stand to affect the U.S. Most concerning for those who have raised alarm bells over the resurgence of al Qaeda and other terrorist groups within the Taliban’s Afghanistan is the introduction of a new cadre of possible terrorist recruits.
Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD’s Long War Journal, told the Washington Examiner that “the massive influx of Afghan refugees will be a boon for the Taliban, al Qaeda, and other allied terror groups operating in Afghanistan.” Roggio said it “will provide these groups with a large pool of people to exploit and recruit. Some of the returnees may be disenchanted and angry with their former host nations and will be willing to exact revenge.”
TALIBAN OPEN ‘DIALOGUE’ AS CONGRESS WORRIES ABOUT AFGHANS SENT BACK AFTER THEIR TPS EXPIRES
Howk is concerned that if TPS removal leads to our allies being returned to Afghanistan, veterans will be negatively affected.
“I have no doubt there will be more suicides from this, because that moral injury is the top thing with veterans right now,” Howk explained, citing how he has seen men “strong as an ox” succumb to the veteran suicide epidemic because of “the shame of wasting their lives as they see it, you know, 18 deployments [over] 20 years.”
Beth Bailey (@BWBailey85) is a freelance contributor to Fox News and the host of The Afghanistan Project, which takes a deep dive into nearly two decades of war and the tragedy wrought in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.