India is the world’s most populous country and its largest democracy. From President George W. Bush to President Joe Biden, bilateral ties strengthened with every administration so that the United States and India appeared poised to become the partnership that would strategically define the 21st century. India was also primed to become a multibillion-dollar American defense partner.
Throughout the Cold War, India was non-aligned but tilted toward the Soviet world for its defense platforms. This continued following the Iron Curtain’s fall, much to Washington’s frustration. While New Delhi was willing to purchase some U.S. technology, its defense doctrine was to avoid placing all its eggs in one basket lest it become too reliant on a single supplier. To India’s credit, it did not allow technology to leak among its various suppliers.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced India to reconsider its strategy. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, Moscow defaulted on several billion dollars in defense deliveries to India on aircraft engines and weaponry. In 2018, for example, India paid Russia $5.4 billion for the S-400 Triumf air defense system, and India also relied upon Russia for spare parts for both its Sukhoi Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fighter jets. One reason why India used its French-built Rafale fighters to greater effect in its recent conflict with Pakistan is that it lacked supplies and support for its Russian-built platforms.
At a February news conference with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, President Donald Trump praised the future of U.S.-India defense ties. “Starting this year, we’ll be increasing military sales to India by many billions of dollars,” Trump said. “We’re also paving the way to ultimately provide India with the F-35 stealth fighters.” Such sales could mean billions of dollars in defense sales and a training partnership with the U.S. lasting decades.
Trump has now traded that for a few seconds of bragging about his alleged role in securing a ceasefire.
“I said, come on, we’re gonna do a lot of trade with you guys,” he said. “Let’s stop it. Let’s stop it. If you stop it, we’ll do a trade. If you don’t stop it, we’re not gonna do any trade. People have never really used trade the way I used it, that I can tell you, and all of a sudden, they said, I think we’re gonna stop.”
PAKISTAN, INDIA TRADE ACCUSATIONS AND THREATS, BUT CEASEFIRE HOLDS
Adding insult to injury, his comments came just before Modi was to address India on what otherwise appeared to be a clear victory over Pakistan.
By bragging about how he could leverage trade to stop fighting, not only did Trump draw moral equivalence between terror-sponsoring Pakistan and terror-victim India, but he signaled to India that the whims of U.S. leaders would endanger its defense supply chain into the future. In the long term, India will further develop its own defense industry, but in the short term, Trump has pushed American defense workers under the bus to make France great again. Sometimes, the cost of bragging can be measured in billions of dollars.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.