Sensing that President Donald Trump much prefers tough rhetoric to tough action, Russian President Vladimir Putin is testing Trump’s willingness to force him to make hard concessions for peace.
Following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump at the Vatican on Saturday, Trump complained publicly about recent high-intensity Russian air strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets. He then expressed frustration that Putin “might just be tapping me along,” asking whether he “has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’” In response, Putin announced a three day ceasefire by Russian forces in Ukraine from May 8 through May 10, timed to celebrate the May 8, 1945 Allied victory over Nazi Germany.
Putin clearly hopes that this gesture will discourage Trump from introducing secondary sanctions on foreign purchasers of Russian energy supplies and against Russia’s central bank. He’ll also hope that by his playing off of the United State’s role in defeating the Nazis, Trump will pressure Ukraine to agree to the ceasefire. This will also minimize Ukraine embarrassing Putin by launching attacks on Moscow during the “Victory Day” parade.
He may not be correct. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt tacitly rebuked the three-day ceasefire offer on Monday, observing, “I understand Vladimir Putin this morning offered a temporary ceasefire. The president has made it clear he wants to see a permanent ceasefire first to stop the killing, stop the bloodshed.” Leavitt’s comments underline Trump’s hope that his suggested thirty-day ceasefire would lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities. The White House should also now be aware that the Kremlin views short-term ceasefires much as it views the Russian Orthodox Church: as a nakedly political tool of distraction. The last ceasefire in Ukraine saw thousands of Russian breaches.
Trump’s problem is that Putin is clearly confident he holds the initiative here.
The former KGB Lieutenant Colonel appears to have so thoroughly manipulated Trump’s chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, that Witkoff cannot meet with Putin without appearing like a kid in a candy store. Trump’s trust for Witkoff has allowed Putin simply to hold occasional public meetings with the negotiator, and thus message to Trump that he is sincere about seeking a just peace.
At the same time, however, Putin keeps doubling down on his war effort and his pummeling of Ukrainian civilians. Why wouldn’t he do so? After all, Trump’s patience toward Putin has thus far matched only Trump’s relentless pressure on Ukraine. Trump’s double standards have been undeniable. Consider, for example, that while Russia still refuses to accept Trump’s call for a thirty-day ceasefire, Ukraine accepted that proposal more than six weeks ago.
In turn, unless Trump actually introduces a near-term timeline to sanction Indian, Turkish, and Chinese purchases of Russian energy supplies and Russian banking infrastructure, Putin’s appetite to compromise will remain very low. Putin’s three-day ceasefire pledge is intended only to add a little fuel to fill Trump’s patience reserve tank. Russian forces will not hold to their leader’s word, because they won’t be supposed to. The only way to divert Putin’s attention to a more serious pursuit of peace is to threaten his access to the international financial markets and energy export revenue credibly.
TRUMP MUST RETALIATE AGAINST EU’S TECH EXTORTION RACKET
Trump should adopt that course of action.
Putin thinks he can play the American president for a fool. But with the Russian economy now sputtering after three years of military spending fueled growth, with inflation running at over 10%, and with global oil prices already well below the Kremlin’s target price, secondary sanctions would force Putin to choose between meaningful compromises for peace, cuts to his war machine, or cuts to already minimal expenditures on domestic services.
Taking the second of those three options would threaten Putin with a battlefield crisis. The third would threaten Putin with a brewing domestic political crisis. This leaves the first as an obvious best choice. But Trump won’t get Putin to that understanding unless he leverages U.S. power in its pursuit.