News of a rapid expansion of U.S. forces in the Middle East flew under the radar as President Donald Trump’s tariff policy captivated the world. With direct U.S.-Iran talks set for Saturday in Oman, according to the White House, the deployment surge signaled Trump’s eagerness to play what he believes is a strong hand against the United States’s longtime foe, which has been weakened by recent events. Iran has contradicted the White House’s claim, saying the talks will be held indirectly.
At stake in the talks is the fate of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The Trump administration has signaled it believes Tehran is dangerously close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Trump made plain the U.S.’s position on Monday, saying, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. If the talks aren’t successful, I actually think it will be a very bad day for Iran.”
The buildup is a rare show of force. It includes F-35A fighter squadrons and stealth bombers sent to Diego Garcia, a small, remote island in the Indian Ocean that houses a major U.S. base used to stage strikes in previous wars. Six B-2 stealth bombers landed there this past week, putting Iran and the Houthis in range.
The surge extends to a strong naval buildup featuring two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the USS Harry S. Truman and the USS Carl Vinson. The former had its deployment extended in the Red Sea, and the latter was rerouted from the Pacific to the Middle East.
The simultaneous presence of two carriers in the region is not without risk. Leaving one fewer in the Pacific while China continues saber-rattling around Taiwan could mean a slower response in the event of a sudden escalation. China launched one of its largest military drills in years earlier this week in the Taiwan Strait.
The showdown comes at a perilous time for the Iranian regime, which finds itself enormously vulnerable vis-a-vis Israel. In the past 18 months, the Israelis have effectively neutered two of three main Iranian military proxies in the Middle East: Hamas and Hezbollah. The former has been pounded by Israeli strikes following the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attacks in southern Israel. At least 17,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, according to Israel, while its tunnels and infrastructure have been destroyed. In Lebanon, Israel’s sabotage of Hezbollah’s communications by rigging pagers and walkie-talkies to explode decapitated its leadership. Hezbollah’s forces have been significantly weakened, leaving them to plot the best path toward “rebuilding.”
Meanwhile, the collapse of Bashar Assad in Syria was a huge blow for Tehran, which had spent tens of billions of dollars propping up the regime to maintain its land bridge to Lebanon. Without an ally in Damascus, efforts to rebuild and rearm Hezbollah and Hamas are drastically more complicated. And all along, the U.S. has been hammering the Houthis in Yemen, another key cog in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” to counter Israel and the U.S. in the region.
As the old saying goes, Iran is happy to wage war against Israel down to the last Arab — and they appear to have finally reached the point of running out of Arab military allies. Iran’s axis has not merely been weakened — it has imploded.
To make matters worse for Tehran, its economy is in a tailspin. Crushed by sanctions imposed by the U.S. when Trump ripped up the Obama-era Iranian nuclear deal in 2018, which severely restricted oil exports, the Iranian rial has plummeted, losing over 90% of its value. Today, over one-third of the Iranian population lives below the poverty line.
With its military and economic capabilities in tatters, its ability to retaliate is severely hampered. Its two major retaliations against Israel in the past year, which included massive ballistic missile and drone strikes, both failed. Iran finds itself more isolated and weakened than at any other time in recent history. Its nuclear program is the only real card it has to play in securing a favorable deal.
All this adds up to a window of opportunity for the Trump administration to deal decisively with a nation that has been a thorn in the side of the U.S. since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
According to Jakub Grygiel, a senior adviser at the Marathon Initiative and professor of politics at the Catholic University of America, Iran has few points of leverage.
“Will the Houthis be able to shut down the sea lanes? No,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Will Hezbollah be able to bomb Israel or attack American interests? Probably not. Is Hamas capable of doing anything at this point? Probably not much. So, if you’re Iran, it’s getting serious. They are incredibly vulnerable.”
For Trump, the goal is straightforward. He must prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and he must restrict Iran from the capability to produce nuclear materials, which includes serious protocols for verification. Iran’s current weakness may also enable the U.S. to address Tehran’s malign activities in other areas, including its cyberattack capabilities and arms sales.
Of course, the Iranians may refuse despite the threat of military strikes. They could suddenly announce that they have achieved nuclear capabilities, which would invite targeted airstrikes from the U.S. and Israel. Trump has assured the Iranians that the situation will be resolved one way or the other. And following the 2020 U.S. strike that killed Iranian major general Qassem Soleimani, the Iranians have every reason to believe Trump will make good on his threat.
The implications of a favorable outcome for the U.S. are vast regarding geopolitics and internal politics. On one hand, solving one of America’s most vexing international quandaries in recent history — how to stop a homicidal regime from acquiring nuclear weapons — would boost U.S. allies in the region, planting seeds for an eventual regional modernization that would benefit American businesses, especially its tech companies poised to pour billions into the region, and allow the U.S. to pivot decisively to Asia.
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At home, either a favorable deal or successful strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be a feather in the cap for an administration suddenly desperate for some good news. Imagine Trump smiling in the Rose Garden, talking about cleaning up former President Barack Obama’s mess. His victory speech might include a line or two like this: “Obama’s worthless deal was billions in cash in exchange for a promise from the worst people in the world. Our deal was: If you didn’t comply, our B-2s were going to wipe you off the map.” It’s the stuff of Make America Great Again dreams.
To be certain, it would be best to avoid a direct military conflict. But Trump is wise to exert pressure by every available means now. Opportunities such as this are rare, and we must capitalize on them while we can. America is fortunate to have leaders in charge who seem to understand this.