The year was 2022. Democrats were in a panic heading into the midterm elections, all thanks to an unpopular president pushing unpopular spending that led to the highest inflation the country had seen since E.T. was in theaters 40 years ago.
The southern border was a full-blown crisis, with nearly 2.8 million people entering the country illegally that year, not including gotaways. Compare that to two years prior under President Donald Trump, when approximately 618,000 crossed the border illegally, a number about 80% lower.
Crime was rampant in cities run by Democratic mayors, with mass exoduses occurring from San Francisco, Chicago, and New York to red states such as Florida, Texas, and Tennessee.
As a result, two words dominated the cable news landscape heading into the November 2022 midterm elections: red wave.
Polls supported this sentiment of a Republican takeover of the House in overwhelming fashion. Many pundits had the GOP gaining anywhere from 30 to 40 seats while also taking back the Senate. At the time, President Joe Biden was 16 points underwater, according to Gallup, with just 40% supporting and 56% disapproving of his performance. His vice president, Kamala Harris, was somehow polling even lower.
So what happened? Republicans only netted nine seats in the House while failing to win back the Senate against profoundly subpar Democratic opponents in traditional red states, including Georgia and Arizona.
This wasn’t a red wave, but a ripple.
Fast forward to 2024: Trump, defying the weaponization of the justice system via lawfare, a perpetually hostile and dishonest media, and two assassination attempts, wins back the presidency. Republicans took back the Senate with a 53-47 majority. The party also held the House, albeit narrowly.
Postinauguration polls showed Trump scoring higher with the public than at any time during his first presidency, with approval comfortably above 50%. A solid majority agreed with his policies as well, especially on mass deportation, the border, and the Department of Government Efficiency’s mission to cut government waste, fraud, and abuse.
We’re now just nine weeks into the second Trump presidency, and his numbers are holding for the most part. His average approval in the RealClearPolitics average sits at about 48%. For context, Trump was at 37% at this time back in 2017.
So with that backdrop, why are Republicans struggling as much as they are in special elections thus far? In Pennsylvania last month, East Petersburg Mayor James Malone defeated Commissioner Josh Parsons in a special state Senate election, a major upset considering that Trump had crushed Harris in the same State Senate District 36 by more than 15 points. Fact: no Democrat had won there since the 1980s.
In Florida, two GOP candidates did win special House elections last week, but the margins were decidedly smaller than they were for Trump in 2024. In Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts, for example, Trump ran away with both by at least 30 points, but in Tuesday’s special elections, Democrats cut those margins in half.
In Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL) won by fewer than 14 points while being outraised 10-to-1 by Democratic opponent Josh Weil, a school teacher. And in Florida’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-FL) defeated Democrat Gay Valimont, also by fewer than 15 points, despite being in a decided Trump stronghold.
In Wisconsin, a race for a seat on the state Supreme Court took on special meaning because the liberal judge in the race, Susan Crawford, ran on a promise to redo the state’s congressional seats to create two Democrat-friendly districts that could result in two more Democrats in the House.
If that happens, we could be looking at House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, which would mean the third impeachment of Trump over the crime of being an existential threat to democracy.
Or something.
Crawford won over conservative candidate Brad Schimel by more than 10 points in a state Trump won by a small margin in 2024.
Add it all up, and we may be looking at a 2022 repeat in 2026 in the midterm elections. Which begs the question: Is the Trump brand transferable?
The answer appears to be, well, not really. His endorsement record overall is more solid than other politicians. Former President Barack Obama is a good example of someone who was seen as perpetually popular with the base, but just look at his track record on the endorsement front.
One could even make the argument that it was Obama’s decision to shame young black voters to cast their ballots for Harris, simply due to her race and gender, that only helped repel them away from her and to Trump.
Going into 2026, Democrats who may have been hesitant to run in solidly red districts may be emboldened by two things they witnessed this week: First, the Florida special election results, which showed that 15-point drop from Trump’s 2024 support, and second, Trump’s trade war through tariffs, which have rattled the markets and will likely bring his approval rating down a few notches, particularly on the question of how he’s handling the economy.
In the long run, these tariffs may lead to far better trade deals, lower tariffs on U.S. goods, more domestic production, and more jobs here at home, but in the short term, there will be pain. Products will be more expensive, at least for now. 401(k)s will be affected. And as we witnessed during the Biden era, a president’s handling of the economy decides his fate and that of the party. If Trump is relatively unpopular as he was before the 2018 midterm elections — he was at 38% — Democrats will surely win back the House, essentially making Trump a lame duck while facing Seinfeld impeachment hearings — a show about nothing.
Such a scenario could also play a role in the 2028 presidential election. As of now, according to a recent YouGov survey, JD Vance is the front-runner for the nomination, clocking in with 40% of Republican voters saying the vice president is their first choice. Donald Trump Jr. is second with 10%, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 4%, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy tied at 3%.
On the blue side, Harris clocks in at 25%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 12%, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tied at 9%, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 7%. Not exactly the ’98 Yankees lineup, but consider this: While Trump won the popular vote and every swing state, this was still a very close election. Trump’s margins in Pennsylvania and Michigan were less than 2 points. In Wisconsin, it was less than 1 point. If those states go the other way, Harris wins 270-268 in the Electoral College.
So while Harris is the worst presidential candidate of our lifetimes, Buttigieg sounds like the human version of a ChatGPT bot, Newsom is as authentic as a $6 bill, and Ocasio-Cortez is a self-described socialist who still advocates spending trillions on the Green New Deal, all could win in 2028 if the economy is in peril. Yes, even Ocasio-Cortez.
President George H.W. Bush once had an 89% approval rating following the first Gulf War and seemed unbeatable going into the 1992 election. That approval dropped to 34% heading into Election Day. Then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, with some help from third-party candidate Ross Perot, won with just 43% of the vote, so anything is possible.
Trump is betting his presidency on winning a trade war against friends and foes alike. In the short term, the pain will be real.
CONGRESS MUST TAKE BACK THE TARIFF POWER
The question is: Will the golden age of prosperity Trump has promised materialize before the next elections in 2026?
Because if it doesn’t, the two words we’ll hear going into that day could be a very real possibility with turnout already down when Trump isn’t on the ballot: blue wave.