Republicans Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won their special elections in Florida Tuesday. In Wisconsin, liberal Susan Crawford defeated conservative Brad Schimel for the state Supreme Court seat.
In all three cases, the side that spent more money lost the election.
Democrat candidate Josh Weil outraised Fine by nearly a 10-1 margin, and Democrat Gay Valimont also outraised Patronis. The massive fundraising advantages only served to cut the margin of victory for Fine and Patronis to 15 points. Former Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz won their seats by more than 30 points in 2024.
Lower turnout numbers are likely part of the reason for the closer margins. The election in Florida’s first district, for example, had less than half the turnout that it had in 2024. While it is possible that Democrats have made small gains in the state in the last five months, the low turnout is likely skewing the results.
Some have called the races a referendum on President Donald Trump, due to somewhat disappointing numbers for Republicans. Trump’s approval rating, however, is still high enough that a 15-point swing from 2024 is unrealistic.
The spending in Wisconsin was more even between the candidates, but Schimel still outspent Crawford by about $10 million and lost by about 10 points. Elon Musk adjacent groups raised more than $20 million for Schimel’s campaign. Crawford, for her part, received backing from Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL) and George Soros.
In total, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, Schimel spent more than $49 million and Crawford spent around $40 million. The contest was the most expensive state supreme court race in history.
Schimel was a long shot to win the Supreme Court seat, as were Valimont and Weil to be elected to Congress. Each side may have thought they had a chance to flip their opponent’s seats. The failures in spite of large spending, however, show that there wasn’t much hope of the votes going the other way.
Florida is a bigger indicator than Wisconsin that it is difficult to buy an election when one side is hopelessly behind. Even though they cut the margin of victory in half, Democrats still got fewer total votes Tuesday than they did last November.
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A massive spending advantage may make a difference in an election where a candidate is within five points. One can’t expect a 30-point deficit to evaporate overnight just because his campaign outspent his opponent’s, however.
Overall, the special elections are a win for Republicans. They held two House seats and hold a 220-213 majority. Wisconsin may change their district maps, but the Supreme Court can’t change anything unless a case is brought before it. The midterm elections may change things, but for now, congressional Republicans have a little more breathing room.