President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains solid — the 47th president is still more popular now than at any point during his first term — but cracks in his support are beginning to show, specifically on his handling of the economy.
A CBS-YouGov poll shows that in January, 42% of voters expected Trump’s economic policies to improve their financial situation, with 28% expecting his policies to hurt their family’s finances. By March, those numbers had flipped. Twenty-three percent of respondents say they are better off financially under the Trump administration with 42% claiming the opposite.
Sixty-four percent of respondents feel Trump is not focused enough on lowering prices, and 55% say the administration is focusing too much on implementing tariffs. In fact, the vast majority of voters polled have a negative view of Trump’s tariff regime.
There are other signs the economy may be in for a rough ride this year. Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s assertion that the administration is not concerned, the stock market has been cratering in anticipation of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff salvo on Wednesday when a 25% tariff on auto imports is expected to take effect. The S&P 500 was down 4.6% in the first quarter of the year, marking its worst quarter since 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is also down 4.6% from its high on Jan. 31 due to investor concerns over tariff policy.
Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month recession probability metric from 20% to 35% this week, factoring in the price hikes associated with tariffs. “The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies,” said Goldman analysts in a statement.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested last week that the administration is looking at a farm bailout to bring relief to farmers expected to be hit hard by retaliatory tariffs leveled by U.S. trade partners, telling reporters that the president asked her to “have some programs in place that would potentially mitigate any economic catastrophes that could happen.”
If concerns over the effects of Trump’s tariff policies are warranted, and prices predictably increase in the middle of an already historically damaging inflationary cycle caused by the dramatic overspending of both the Trump 45 and Biden administrations, Trump’s second term might effectively be over before it has a chance to gain its footing.
Presidential administrations typically have two years to accomplish the bulk of their agenda items. Midterm elections, historically, are brutal for the party in power, and if voters see food and car prices increase substantially while their 401(k)s continue to dwindle, the GOP will have an uphill battle in November 2026. Good luck convincing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to support Trump priorities such as enhanced border security and tax cuts.
Trump and his advisers have long held the belief that voters will accept the negative effects of tariffs. “We may have in the short term, a little pain,” the president said in February. “And people understand that. But long term, the United States has been ripped off by virtually every country in the world.”
There is not much in terms of recent history, however, that suggests this assumption has any foundation in reality. Neither Trump himself nor former President Joe Biden could overcome a sluggish economy, and the suggestion that Americans are ready and willing to go through hard times in an attempt to prove the virtues of protectionist economic policies is, at the very least, wishful thinking by the 47th president.
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Other Trump initiatives, such as the mass deportation of criminal illegal aliens and the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, remain quite popular. Those efforts also happen to be extremely necessary, and if Trump’s goal is to enact lasting change, he can’t afford to lose the faith of the voters on the economy.
Without Congress, or without a high approval rating that keeps the milquetoast wing of congressional Republicans in line, the Trump agenda has no chance. Trump would be relegated to using a “pen and a phone” to enact policy changes that could immediately be upended by his successor.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a musician, political strategist, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.