Florida will hold a pair of special elections on April 1 to replace the vacancies left by former Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz.
Both elections are in traditionally Republican districts, as Waltz won his seat by 33 points and Gaetz won his by 32 points. In spite of Gaetz’s large margin of victory, he still underperformed President Donald Trump’s margin by 6 points, indicating the district may be even more Republican-friendly. Democrats are also experiencing low approval ratings, which further reduces their odds of flipping either seat.
Florida Democrats, however, are banking on negative reactions to the Department of Government Efficiency firing federal workers, especially in the Department of Veterans Affairs. Democrat Gay Valimont is hoping negative sentiments among veterans in Florida’s 1st Congressional District will be enough to turn the seat blue. The district has the largest veteran population in the country.
Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins said the DOGE cuts would not affect veterans’ benefits, but Valimont’s campaign, along with some anti-Trump Republicans, say Trump’s policies will be a threat to veterans.
Valimont’s campaign has raised nearly $7 million compared to her Republican competitor, Jimmy Patronis, who has raised slightly more than $1 million. There is an even greater disparity in Florida’s 6th Congressional District. Democrat Josh Weil has raised more than $9 million as opposed to Republican Randy Fine’s $600,000. The fundraising margins indicate that there is some doubt about the effects that Trump’s cuts will have on the VA office.
That being said, the VA office is not the only issue among Florida voters. Valimont is a gun control activist and previously led the group Moms Demand Action. Her gun policy is likely too liberal to win in a conservative Florida district, especially one with a large number of veterans.
Fine and Patronis have both received endorsements from the president in a state that is very pro-Trump. Trump is especially popular in the northern regions of the state, where both congressional districts are.
Another possible reason for the disparity in fundraising is that Republicans are not concerned about the election, whereas the Democrats, as challengers, need to raise the extra funds. Both seats are key in determining the extent of Republican control in the House.
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Republicans hold a 218-213 House majority after the deaths of two Democratic representatives. A win in both seats would mean that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) could afford one or two rogue votes on bills without endangering the legislation.
The large fundraising numbers should be a wake-up call to Republicans not to take the race for granted, but in all likelihood, Fine and Patronis should win their seats by comfortable margins. The Democratic fundraising may be able to reduce the margins slightly, but it would be surprising to see the Republicans win either seat by fewer than 20 points.