Another day, another threat of continued tariff chaos. This time, President Donald Trump announced an additional 25% to 50% tariff (the final number to be determined later!) on all Canadian aluminum and steel imports. This came after Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he would impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. Ford was responding to Trump’s threat last Tuesday of a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods even though these were suspended for 30 days.
Will Trump unsuspend his original 25% tariff and impose the new 25%-50% additional tariff? Will Ford follow through on his threat? Nobody knows, and nobody outside the White House seems to be enjoying the uncertainty.
Trump is still just above water in most polling. For example, the latest Emerson College survey shows 47% of voters approve of his performance as president compared to 45% who do not approve. But drill down, and it is clear Trump is losing voter confidence on economic matters. According to Emerson, just 37% of voters approve of the job he is doing on the economy, compared to 48% who disapprove.
Contrast Trump’s ratings on the economy with how he is faring on immigration, on which 48% of voters say they approve and just 40% disapprove. Emerson is not the only pollster to identify this mismatch. Reuters and Harvard University also have Trump in the red on the economy, while his immigration policies enjoy solid support.
The contrast between these matters is easily explained. On immigration, Trump has pursued a commonsense strategy of enforcing laws that former President Joe Biden purposefully neglected. Trump ended the catch-and-release policy at the southern border, which has led to the lowest number of unauthorized crossings in decades. Instead of mass arrests and deportation camps in the desert, which was what fearmongers forecasted, Trump has pursued only those illegal immigrants who broke other laws and are a threat and has stepped up enforcement against employers who illegally employ illegal immigrants.
Trump has buttressed this strict but measured and low-key approach with a message to illegal immigrants that they should self-deport while they can. This is aided by his transformation of Biden’s CBP One app, which was first designed to help illegal immigrants into the country but has now been reverse-engineered, so to speak, into a tool for helping them leave the United States freely. The public can see the positive results of Trump’s immigration policies, which have been achieved with minimal disruption and chaos.
On tariffs, by contrast, Trump has chosen a shock-and-awe approach of rapid-fire increases, suspensions, exemptions, and escalations that have left foreign governments and domestic businesses confused, concerned, and scrambling. Farmers, manufacturers, builders, food preparers — it is hard to think of an industry that is not touched by imported or exported goods. These businesses all need to know what their costs will be before they make investment and spending decisions, and Trump is massively disrupting the stability they need. Look at the National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index, which is hardly a bastion of liberal bias. According to NFIB, the percentage of small businesses that say now is a good time to expand just saw its biggest one-month fall since the COVID-19 pandemic. The same survey’s uncertainty index rose to its second-highest level since 1973, which was a very bleak economic time.
A GOOD START ON SPENDING BY HOUSE REPUBLICANS
To the extent that tariffs can be employed to achieve specific, targeted economic and national security goals — and this publication has its doubts — Trump’s chaotic implementation of such policies is undermining what little political agreement there may be for using them as effective policy.
Then, there is Trump’s larger deregulatory agenda to consider, as well as the permanence of his 2017 tax cuts. It is fair to say that the underpinnings of Trump’s larger “America First” vision are at stake. If his uneven tariff tactics cause a recession, it will undermine not just the rest of his agenda but also his larger legacy and the future of “America First” conservatism for years to come.