President Donald Trump took his first tentative step on Tuesday toward putting pressure on Russia to negotiate an ending to its war on Ukraine. The president did so via Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who secured Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire. Following talks in Saudi Arabia, Rubio said, “The ball is now in Russia’s court.”
This is a small but marked change from what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. After all, Trump’s strategy for ending the war has thus far centered on his outsize pressure against Ukraine. The embattled country has seen the suspension of U.S. arms supplies, financial support, and intelligence sharing. It has seen the president unjustly blame it and shamefully side with Russia concerning the undeniable fact that Russia started the war in February 2022. The Trump administration has even reduced U.S. defenses against Russia in a delusional belief that doing so will invite President Vladimir Putin’s reciprocity. In response to Tuesday’s agreement, Trump has restored arms supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
What will Russia do now?
It is likely that Putin will not reject a ceasefire outright, fearing that doing so would aggravate Trump. Instead, the Russian leader may attempt to extract further concessions from Trump in return for his ceasefire commitment. These might include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Russia’s city of Kursk or perhaps a statement from Trump that most of Russian-occupied Ukraine will remain under Russian control as part of any final status accord. Putin may also push for Trump’s concessionary rhetoric against Ukraine’s critical objective from any final deal: the deployment of European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine alongside a U.S. “backstop” assurance to support those forces in the event of a future Russian attack.
Instead, Trump should insist Russia make the same no-strings-attached agreement as Ukraine. Namely, the fighting must stop along the entirety of the front line — including in Kursk — for 30 days. Based on Russia’s prior rampant rhetoric of breaking ceasefire agreements, Trump must also remain laser-focused on ensuring compliance with any ceasefire.
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If Russia refuses these terms, Trump should take immediate action to compel a change in Putin’s strategic calculus. Trump could, for example, provide additional arms supplies to Ukraine, enforce sanctions against Russian oil smuggling, and prepare secondary sanctions on China and India regarding their purchases of Russian oil and gas. Those secondary sanctions would devastate the Russian economy by hammering its only export sector and source of foreign capital. His statements of absolute confidence aside, Putin can ill afford new and severe economic strains amid key goods shortages and inflation rates running at 10%. Those sanctions threats underline why Putin will accept a European peacekeeping force if compelled. Russian history does not bode well for leaders who face mass social disorder.
Trump has an opportunity now to seize the initiative for a just peace. He should do so by focusing on what Putin is actually willing to do, not what Putin says he might do.