Donald Trump’s inauguration today at noon will be historic for many reasons, including that he will be the first president since Grover Cleveland sworn in for nonconsecutive terms.
Trump’s astonishing political comeback means he enters office with the energy and excitement of a first-term president but the experience and knowledge of a second-term president. He is surrounding himself with people who are committed to his vision and who also know how Washington works. This gives them a chance to make that vision reality.
Trump’s first-term energy gives him a rare opportunity, but he should never forget that he is term limited. He has only four years, and his window of opportunity for accomplishment is small. This makes his first 100 days all the more important.
Trump has promised many ambitious actions on his first day in office, including the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in history, a 35% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on all goods from China, and an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Such boasts should be taken with a grain of salt. Trump is a showman and negotiating in public is his modus operandi. Border czar Tom Homan has made clear initial deportation efforts will focus on illegal immigrants who have committed other crimes. It will not involve door-to-door raids of people’s homes. Trump has also said his tariffs would be adjusted “somewhat,” with Mexico possibly avoiding tariffs entirely if it cooperates on border enforcement and Chinese tariffs being phased in slowly. On Russia, Trump said in a postelection interview, “I think that the Middle East is an easier problem to handle than what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine.”
It already appears that Trump has moved first on Israel’s war with Hamas before dealing with Russia.
The key for Trump will be moving methodically and purposefully, making sure to jump through all the legal hoops necessary to maximize the chances his executive actions can survive challenges.
On immigration, in addition to working with cooperative jurisdictions to deport illegal immigrants arrested for committing other crimes such as shoplifting and drunk driving, Trump can immediately end President Joe Biden’s parole programs, which have been used to bring millions of inadmissible immigrants into the country. Trump can end Biden’s catch-and-release policies on the southern border and begin to work with our neighbor to reinstate his successful “Remain in Mexico” policy.
On energy, expect Trump to announce the beginning of the regulatory process necessary to undo Biden’s electric vehicle mandate and power plant rules. Both stretched the Clean Air Act beyond its original scope and are being challenged in federal court. Trump can bring relief to energy consumers by reversing these rules.
On trade, expect Trump to announce an investigation into China’s unjustifiable practices that discriminate against American goods. They clearly discriminate improperly by definition in Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. After a finding of discriminatory conduct, Trump could begin raising tariffs on goods at his discretion.
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As important as Trump’s executive actions will be, the White House must also keep pressure on Republicans in Congress to meet legislative deadlines. The Treasury Department’s authority to borrow money is set to expire this summer, and Trump’s 2017 tax cuts expire at midnight on Dec. 31. Whether these deadlines are met through one reconciliation bill or two doesn’t matter to Trump, but they both need to get done. The House has announced its intention to pass a budget reconciliation resolution by the end of February, and Trump should keep it to that deadline.
Trump is going to have to work with a small Republican majority in the Senate and a smaller one in the House. Party discipline will be key. But so far, Republicans in both chambers are playing politics properly, as a team sport, and sticking together for now. If Trump can keep this unity and generate momentum behind his policy changes, his vision for the Republican Party and the nation can continue on to another Inauguration Day.