Almost every U.S. president since George H.W. Bush had his foreign policy legacy defined by the crisis no one saw coming during the campaign. For the elder Bush, it was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Bill Clinton ended up in two Balkans wars. George W. Bush sought a domestic focus but, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, ended up in a war in Afghanistan and, more controversially, in Iraq. Barack Obama promised to “end stupid wars” but then entered Syria and Libya. The COVID-19 pandemic overshadowed President-elect Donald Trump’s first administration, and Ukraine dominated President Joe Biden’s term.
The collapse of Cuba’s communist regime could soon bring new chaos to America’s doorstep.
The Hotel Nacional de Cuba sits above a bluff overlooking the Caribbean. While tourists still gather on the lawn for mojitos to enjoy its historical ambiance and watch its resident peacocks roam, it has seen better days. When I was there a year ago, a glass chandelier came crashing down after the wind grew too gusty.
The Nacional hotel is a metaphor for Cuba today. A Cuban surgeon I met said the leading cause of death among young Cubans is stabbings, with building collapses not far behind. Infrastructure has crumbled. Cuban officials I met spoke of visiting their children in the United States. They reminded me of Iranian officials. They might spout the party line, but their eyes revealed they no longer believed in the revolution.
Zombie regimes such as North Korea or Belarus can persist decades after they lose legitimacy. Cuba has been coasting on fumes for 30 years. While Communist Party functionary Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez is Cuba’s titular president, most Cubans, both in government and outside, describe 93-year-old Raul Castro and 94-year-old former Vice President Jose Ramon Machado Ventura and his 92-year-old successor Ramiro Valdes Menendez as the real powers. Even government officials speak of the governing troika as a black box from which decisions emerge.
While they protect party interests and live like kings, Cuba is disintegrating. While Cubans no longer risk their lives en masse on rafts and rickety boats, visa-free travel to Nicaragua means Cubans can fly to Managua. Buses then shuttle them to the southern U.S. border. The Cuban Adjustment Act allows Cubans to gain permanent residency just 366 days after stepping foot in the U.S. In 2022 and 2023 alone, more than a million Cubans, 10% of the population, fled their country for good, many to the U.S. but others to Spain. Statistics are not yet available for 2024, but the hemorrhaging has continued. Put another way, Cuba lost in just three years proportionately more than twice what Germany lost during World War II.
Not all Cubans live equally or have the same opportunities, however, despite what the regime’s Communist propaganda might say.
Cubans range an ethnic spectrum from white to Afro-Cuban, with various degrees of racial mixing in between. White Cubans have always dominated the country, both before and after the 1959 Cuban Revolution. Afro-Cubans dominate the most menial jobs. The recent exodus has been overwhelmingly white for the simple reason that the Cuban community in the U.S. is overwhelmingly white, and Cubans flee to where they have family support. There may not be a country since the exodus that accompanied the end of apartheid in South Africa that has undergone such a rapid change in racial demographics.
When Cuba’s shadow triumvirate dies, expect chaos to reign. Afro-Cubans will seek their due. Gangs will extort business, compete for turf, and resist the Cuban American community’s investment schemes.
So, too, will China, Venezuela, and Russia. The likelihood that Cuba becomes a second Haiti could be far more likely than a new Puerto Rico, especially if Trump’s team does not outline contingency plans. As Cuba’s Revolution turns 65 years old, almost every Cuban recognizes this year will be its last. Whether Washington gets the message, though, is open to question.
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Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.