The recent unexplained drone sightings in New Jersey and previous incidents at an Air Force base in Virginia have pulled back the curtain on America’s vulnerability to swarms of commercial and recreational drones. It’s not a question of if, but rather when, terrorists will exploit that weakness with attacks. The follow-up question is what weapons the terrorists might equip their drones with. Will it be explosives? Electronic warfare weapons? Or perhaps even radiological or biological contaminants?
Unfortunately, these recent incidents show that our security officials, from the Pentagon, the Department of Homeland Security, and the FBI down to the local sheriff, are clearly incapable of stopping a wave of terrorist-controlled drones.
Unexplained drone swarms are not new.
In October 2023, between four and five drones flew in restricted airspace over the Department of Energy’s National Security Site in the Nevada desert. They appeared repeatedly over a three-day period. The site is part of the Energy Department’s nuclear weapons complex. At the time, it lacked both drone detection systems and drone defense weapons, deficiencies that have reportedly been rectified.
In December 2023, sensitive U.S. military installations in Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, were overflown for 17 nights by drone swarms. Langley Air Force Base, home to F-22 Raptor squadrons, was one target. Naval Station Norfolk, the largest Navy port in the world, was another. The FBI, DHS, the Pentagon, and the White House were involved in the effort to identify the drones. Some were more than 20 feet long and flew up to 100 mph, while others were small, slow-moving hobby-type quadcopters.
Because they flew in formation and used different radio frequencies than ordinary recreational drones, military and intelligence officials concluded they were highly unlikely to be operated by hobbyists. But efforts to identify the drones’ origin and purpose were futile, leaving President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin perplexed. The incident was covered in an in-depth report by the Wall Street Journal.
Other examples abound. In late November and early December, for example, drones were reported over a major U.S. Air Force base in the United Kingdom for nearly two weeks. The drones over that base, which likely hosts U.S. nuclear weapons, were never identified. But the U.K. government was so concerned with the intrusions that it deployed special forces to increase security at the base. The U.S. military also sent specialist investigators to the area.
One challenge?
Even if the drones had been identified as Chinese or Russian, under current law, there is little the military can do. A drone that poses an imminent threat or flies in restricted airspace can be legally shot down. Without such a finding, neither the military nor the police can legally down a drone. A finding of imminent threat is a bureaucratic procedure that takes time and must go up the chain of command. Fast-moving drones can strike before a threat is declared imminent. And no one wants to make a mistake such as shooting down a highly expensive U.S. military or spy drone, or God forbid, a small civilian aircraft that is misidentified in the dark and poor weather conditions as a hostile drone.
Security planners recognize America’s vulnerability to terrorist drones. In 2021, the Association of the U.S. Army published a study titled “The Role of Drones in Future Terrorist Attacks.” Army Maj. Thomas G. Pledger’s study was completed before Russia invaded Ukraine and the use of modified recreational drones to attack Russian troops added a new dimension to modern warfare.
Pledger’s study noted that Louisiana State University had published open-source instructions on building a GPS-guided drone capable of carrying a 10-pound explosive load controlled by radio. Online instructions also exist for 3D-printed drones. He compared the cost of building this system to the funding required for other terrorist attacks. A sophisticated ghost drone can be built for under $2,000, compared to the estimated $500,000-$700,000 it cost Osama bin Laden to fund 9/11.
The widespread use of recreational drones is relatively new. Shortly after the U.S. military and CIA began ramping up their use of drones for lethal strikes against terrorists in 2009, the popularity of drones soared among hobbyists. Sales of recreational drones took off between 2010 and the present. The Government Accountability Office estimates that there are now some 3.3 million drones in the United States. Slightly under a million are registered with the Federal Aviation Administration and thus identifiable to law enforcement. Of those, 386,000 are registered as recreational users flying drones.
Drones are treated under U.S. law like airplanes. The FAA has jurisdiction over their regulation. After heavy lobbying from the drone industry and commercial users, the FAA exempted the vast majority of recreational drones from licensing requirements. Only those recreational drones weighing more than 55 pounds or flown above 440 feet must be registered with the FAA. That process includes establishing a unique remote identification number for each drone.
In theory, remote ID gives FAA and law enforcement the means to identify a drone involved in suspicious or illegal activity. In June 2024, the General Accounting Office found that due to the lack of an operational, real-time interface between the FAA and law enforcement officers, tracking down a suspicious drone is virtually impossible. The GAO made several recommendations for improving enforcement to the FAA, but outgoing Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg hasn’t completed them. Even when law enforcement can identify a drone flying illegally, most jurisdictions lack the tools and training to down it by jamming its controls electronically.
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The Trump administration should give urgent attention to addressing the threat of military and terrorist use of drones against the U.S. homeland. Legislation may be required to shift responsibility for drone security measures from the FAA to DHS.
The problems are known. What America needs now are solutions. Because if we don’t get solutions, the public will rightly ask some very hard questions about why their elected leaders and those sworn to protect them did not respond to a very evident and serious threat.
John B. Roberts II is a former international political strategist who served in the Reagan White House. He has published widely on national security issues. His website is www.jbrobertsauthor.com.