House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has no doubt had a turbulent year as the leader of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, but any effort to replace him with someone else will not create smoother sailing.
President-elect Donald Trump made clear that any effort to replace Johnson as House speaker lacks his support. In a lengthy post on Truth Social, Trump again endorsed Johnson for the top job, even after a messy fight over government spending and the debt ceiling created feelings of discontent within the Republican conference.
Johnson “will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN,” Trump said. “Mike has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
By endorsing Johnson, Trump is shrewdly helping head off challenges to the speaker’s bid for another term. The new Congress is set to be sworn in Friday, and next Monday, the House and the Senate are set to meet for a joint session to certify Trump’s victory in the presidential election.
To win another term as speaker, Johnson needs to secure the support of 218 members of the House. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority with 220 seats, meaning that the speaker can only afford two defections. Already on the list of defectors is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who said he would not support Johnson and that the party needs a new leader to implement Trump’s agenda. Other members, including Reps. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), Eli Crane (R-AZ), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Chip Roy (R-TX), have indicated that their support for Johnson is not guaranteed.
But no matter how dissatisfied with Johnson the malcontent caucus of the Republican conference may be, there is simply no alternative candidate with a viable path to the speakership. These lawmakers can stand on principle all they want, but they will only succeed in delaying the swearing-in of Congress, delaying the certification of the presidential election, and delaying the legislative process of the first Republican trifecta government since the end of the 115th Congress in 2019.
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If Trump and Republicans are to succeed in their policy goals, they need to take power with as few roadblocks as possible. At this late stage, there simply is no other viable plan to elect a speaker in time for the Monday electoral vote certification, especially because the state funeral of the late former President Jimmy Carter is scheduled for Jan. 9, 2025. From then on, it is a sprint to Jan. 20, when Trump is set to be inaugurated as the nation’s 47th president.
Despite his faults, blocking Johnson from the speakership this week is a recipe for disaster that the Republican majorities in Congress and the incoming Trump administration cannot afford.