A recent study examining the government’s annual National Crime Victimization Survey reports that, during the Obama administration, “minorities, especially Black Americans … experienced high and volatile victimization rates.” By contrast, during the Trump administration, “there was a notable decrease in victimization rates for most minority groups, particularly Black Americans.”
It didn’t last.
During the Biden administration, “victimization rates increased for all groups, with Black Americans seeing a significant rise compared to the Trump years.” The fact that minorities were safer under President-elect Donald Trump may help explain why so many defected from the Democratic Party in 2024. He won 42% of the Hispanic vote, up from 28% in 2016, including 50% of Hispanic men. He also won 14% of the black vote, up from 6% in 2016, including an impressive 24% of black men — the best showing for a Republican presidential candidate among black voters in almost 50 years.
That crime victimization patterns match presidential administrations might initially seem surprising, because law enforcement is largely a state and local issue. As much as Trump would like to take all the credit for reductions in crime on his watch, would-be robbers probably weren’t looking to the White House when deciding whether to break the law. But Trump also deserves some credit — he opposed destructive progressive criminal justice experimentation, unlike Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who supported progressive crime policies that led to thousands of needless minority deaths and tens of thousands of avoidable victimizations.
One reason minorities were safer under Trump is that progressive criminal justice reformers were weaker. Voter support for the president-elect correlated with support for common sense policies on crime. His return to power reflects a rejection of progressive crime policies, with blue states such as California and New York seeing especially large shifts in voter support against the Democratic Party.
Last month, liberal Californians overwhelmingly voted by almost 40 points to reverse much of Proposition 47, the 2014 progressive reform that effectively decriminalized retail theft under $950. Progressive and racially diverse Los Angeles voters also tossed George Gascon, one of the nation’s most prominent progressive prosecutors, from the district attorney’s office by over 20 points.
His replacement is Republican-turned-independent Nathan Hochman, whose simple promise to prosecute criminals won over Angelinos tired of seeing criminals left free to roam the streets. California voters also decisively rejected a push to ban prison labor in what was perceived as yet another attempt to soften punishments in the state.
Even before the election, Democratic lawmakers were scrambling to reverse progressive reforms due to their unpopularity. In April, Oregon’s Democratic lawmakers sobered up to the consequences of drug decriminalization and recriminalized hard drugs. In 2020, before the progressive decriminalization experiment, Oregon suffered 472 opioid overdose deaths. In 2023, it suffered 1,416 — a 200% increase, compared to a nationwide increase of only 17%. There were 12 times as many fatal overdoses each week in Oregon as there were calls to the special treatment line to which police were required to refer drug offenders instead of making arrests. Instead of ushering addicts into rehab, the progressive reform drove them to the morgue.
Minorities especially have learned the hard way that progressive criminal justice reform doesn’t live up to its promises. Even as black people begged to keep police in their neighborhoods during the 2020 riots, progressive elites in 20 major cities slashed police budgets, and police-free zones sprang up in cities including Atlanta, Seattle, and Minneapolis. Murders surged 30% nationwide compared to 2019. Most of the additional 5,000 murder victims in 2020 were black men, as were the extra 6,000 murder victims in 2021, the extra 5,000 murder victims in 2022, and the extra 3,000 murder victims in 2023. Trump rightly objected to the defund the police movement from the start. By contrast, Biden expressed openness to redirecting police funds, and Vice President Kamala Harris praised the movement and police budget cuts. It’s no surprise black men helped send Trump back to the White House.
With voters rolling back progressive crime policies nationwide and returning Trump to office, America has an opportunity to forge a new bipartisan consensus on crime.
First, Democrats need to accept that progressive reformers were wrong: Minority communities aren’t helped by refusing to police or punish minority offenders. No one worries that arresting white criminals hurts the white community because it obviously isn’t true. Protecting innocent black and Hispanic community members from crime should be no different. All murder victims bleed the same color, and no one likes being mugged regardless of their skin tone.
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Second, Democrats and Republicans should both agree that using more nonprison punishments and promoting rehabilitation where possible is just common sense. Trump signed the bipartisan First Step Act of 2018, which helped reduce the federal prison population without increasing crime. Lawmakers should rally behind Trump for a Second Step Act next year.
Finally, everyone needs to recognize that we are on the same team when it comes to fighting crime. Protecting people from crime is one of the most basic duties of government, more foundational than fixing roads, collecting trash, or delivering mail. It’s time politicians treated it that way.
Paul Robinson is the Colin S. Diver Professor of Law and Jeffrey Seaman is a Levy Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. They are the authors of the recently published Confronting Failures of Justice: Getting Away with Murder and Rape (Rowman & Littlefield).