Some American conservatives such as the Heritage Foundation have a strange affection for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Yes, it’s understandable to like Orban’s pro-family and strong border policies. The problem is Orban’s position as China’s greatest ally in Europe. These American conservatives ignore the fact that Orban is a nationalist strongman only so far as it favors Chinese President Xi Jinping. They ignore the fact that Orban’s foreign policy is incompatible with U.S. national security interests. They ignore Orban’s unabashed effort to manipulate President-elect Donald Trump.
True, it’s unfair to single Orban out even if he is the worst American ally in Europe. Governments such as those of Belgium, Germany, and Spain pose their own problems to America. They claim to value U.S. relations but skimp on defense spending while refusing to take a greater lead in Europe’s support. They also often put Chinese interests before those of America. In so doing, they underline why Americans are coming to the otherwise misguided conclusion that the trans-Atlantic alliance and its NATO security foundation are no longer in America’s interest.
Fortunately, there are other European allies who set a much better example for American conservative confidence. Albeit now led by a center-left government, Poland shares pro-family and immigration policies with Hungary. Except that it does so while also being an American friend. Poland will spend just shy of 5% of GDP on defense in 2025, far exceeding the 2%-of-GDP NATO defense spending target that many alliance members either still do not meet or just barely exceed. And there are other strong allies out east.
Take Estonia. A tiny country with a population of just 1.4 million people, Estonia sits just 75 miles west of St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s home city. An openly declared jewel of Putin’s imperial dreams, the country rightly fears that it might be the target of a Russian military reconstituted once the war in Ukraine is resolved and Western sanctions removed. But unlike some NATO allies, Estonia has listened to Trump’s concerns about NATO freeloading. It will spend 3.3% of GDP on defense from 2025 forward. This is a higher %-of-GDP defense expenditure than the United States and second in NATO only to Poland.
At the same time, Estonia has lost valuable economic opportunities by supporting U.S. concerns in relation to Chinese economic and espionage malfeasance and by fostering close relations with Taiwan. It bears again emphasizing that these policies are in stark contrast to those of Hungary, which spends little more than 2% of GDP on defense and makes its foreign policy at Beijing’s whim. And Estonia is also a very pro-American society. Consider the screenshot below. It shows that the Die Hard movies will be airing in order each night on Estonia’s TV3 television network from Christmas Eve to Dec. 28. Why does this matter?
Well, because there are few more important Christmas cultural motifs of American conservatism than watching Die Hard movies at Christmas! This isn’t a silly concern, however.
It shows that Estonia likes America and acts in ways deserving of American friendship for the same reason that so many Americans like watching Die Hard and Home Alone at Christmas. Namely, because its people want to live courageously and freely. In turn, it explains why Estonians offer America diplomatic, economic, and military support — Estonian soldiers fought and died alongside Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq. It’s not because they want to placate America or somehow buy off their U.S. military alliance. Rather it’s because they share the values that Americans hold dear. And because they do not wish to live as subjects under a corrupt Russian imperium that offers America only false rhetoric, nuclear brinkmanship ignorant of America’s far greater nuclear forces, and brutal covert warfare.
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In turn, American conservatives would do well to ask themselves who John McClane would pick as a friend if asked to choose between Estonia, Hungary, and Russia. The answer is a simple one, Estonia. Any American conservatives who disagree with the Estonian choice obviously have the right to do so. But admitting their not-so-Reaganesque supplicating fear of Russia, or deference to false friend Hungary, they should appropriately adjust their Christmas selection away from Die Hard.
Something weak and insipid, such as The Dog Who Saved the Holidays, would make for a more suitable choice.