Trump’s grassroots gamble

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It took strategic novelty to inaugurate political novelty. President-elect Donald Trump won reelection in large part thanks to the votes of unmarried men who chose him over Vice President Kamala Harris 49%-47% this year, compared to 2020 when President Joe Biden won unmarried men 52%-45%.

Trump’s campaign strategy focused on low-propensity voters, and it proved the right move. He won all seven swing states and the popular vote, defying projections not because his win was shocking, but because tangible success was not a given. Young men were ready to vote for Trump, but would they go to the polls? To make sure they did, the Trump campaign took a chance on Generation Z.

A new hope

It was a gamble in light of the broad perception that Gen Z is coddled, slothful, even “stupid.” But Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk has had a mind for addressing these stereotypes since the launch of his organization, especially through the official campaigning arm established in 2019, Turning Point Action. It was Turning Point’s efforts, in combination with College Republicans, that set Gen Z involvement aflame during this election season.

The aim was simple: Secure low-propensity voters for Trump to make his popularity a reality, particularly in swing states. In practice, however, people need repeated urging, so a reworked ballot-chasing approach was in order.

Rather than targeting voters merely by affiliation, the campaign pinpointed Republicans who had voted zero, one, or two times out of the past four election cycles. The former, the traditional method, often winds up with two consequences. For one, it turns out votes for the opponent by rousing low-propensity Democrats — a risky move. Second, it motivates consistent Republicans to vote earlier than they would have ordinarily. Needless, but also misleading for early voting statistics.

Generation Z is the standard-bearer for low-propensity voting. The Trump campaign had to make progress with these young voters to make it anywhere near real odds for the White House. But it was more than progress — the campaign sought a relationship with them. Barron Trump, the youngest son of the president-elect, advised his father that appearing with podcasters such as Adin Ross, Theo Von, Joe Rogan, and several others would boost his popularity with young men. It would play to the advantage of Trump’s already open personality and grant him and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance levels of closeness with voters that Harris never established.

The move started his bid for young voters, while Turning Point kept on with its ground-level work now aided by a rapt audience. Motivating them to vote would be a main task. At the same time, the rest of the country’s low-propensity voters would be another — also involving help from an energized Gen Z.

One fell swoop

Turning Point Action describes itself as “grassroots” for a reason. Headquartered in Phoenix, the organization’s main activities are voter registration and ballot chasing, wherein volunteers call and door-knock to ensure people with mail-in ballots follow through with voting. Leaders and volunteers maintain a presence on college campuses and in swing states.

The first part of its mission, voter registration, was key especially for churning out the Gen Z vote. Kirk, with other Turning Point members, spent time at universities in key states, primarily Arizona, to rile up college-aged voters and field policy questions. From giving away hundreds of “Make America Great Again” hats to discussing specifics with skeptical voters, the effort was constant and resolute. It worked: Gen Z early voting turnout came in at 63% for Republicans. Trump won the youth vote in Michigan and nearly did so in Wisconsin.

The other, at least equally important half of Turning Point’s efforts went toward deployments. For its strongest impact, Turning Point collaborated with the College Republicans of America, a coalition of College Republicans college chapters across the country, and embraced the nontraditional ground game model.

When they are not phone banking and hosting speakers, College Republicans members go out knocking. Gabe Guidarini, acting president of College Republicans of America, explained to the Washington Examiner that the organization’s in-house capacity is a “wrecking ball College Republicans has at all times” to mobilize in favor of a given candidate. Apart from individual chapter door-knocking groups, much of its weight during the campaign landed on deployments to swing states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Turning Point paid for travel and shelter, where members installed thousands of volunteers into strategies and events already in motion. The Republican ticket notably succeeded in Arizona, which had the greatest margin of any swing state, Wisconsin, and so on — victories inseparable from the ballot-chasing numbers Turning Point has reported since the election.

Young people are enthusiastic about the cause. That is plain to see in their engagement. They care about the economy, they care about foreign involvement, and they care about a baseline level of social norms. Right now, positions on social issues do not have to align perfectly to draw out similar ire among voters. It is what made this one a “last gasp” election: Young people like having a stake in personal victory, Guidarini said, and the way things were going assigned a real sense of urgency to their hopes. College Republicans of America enters and makes it as easy as possible to orient those interests toward direct contribution.

Things are looking up

In some typical blue states such as Virginia, the effects of campaign efforts are clear. With 46% of the vote, Trump nearly flipped Virginia red, certainly purple. This sort of shift is intelligible alongside what we know about the campaign’s commitment to the ground game.

Similar to young Republicans’ eagerness for deployment off to Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, some members of College Republicans chapters in Virginia ran ground efforts across the state. One member told the Washington Examiner that he had “never seen so many volunteers out for a candidate,” noting that some students also worked taking official roles for the campaign. Trump generated high energy among young voters, and consistent staff and volunteers made it possible to sustain and move Virginia rightward.

New Hampshire was another surprise Republican flip to purple. Notably, the Harvard Republican Club endorsed Trump this year and in 2020 after refusing to do so in 2016. The group sent volunteers to campaign in New Hampshire and, alongside the official Trump team in the state, returned with Trump having won 48% of the vote.

As for the zeal we see among Gen Z voters, volunteer work does a lot. College Republicans chapters are probably the most prominent source of this type of experience, though young adults have similar opportunities to volunteer elsewhere or staff a campaign directly. “The impact on them lies in getting to know people across their own community,” Guidarini said. That is part of the vision for College Republicans of America: While knocking on doors and speaking to strangers advances the candidate, at the individual level, it broadens a person’s worldview and develops his understanding of local political topography.

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It also means that these young people understand their own positions better than before. The ins and outs of policies are crucial to persuading voters of their merit, but so too do volunteers become well-versed in what policies mean for a given locale. Their politics are influenced by a real-life sense of community, and that community keeps them going.

What distinguishes young Republicans from their Democratic peers is the nature of their engagement. It is not so identity-consumed as on the Left. Trump’s success proved that the Democratic Party is out of touch with reality, and part of the reason for it was their fixation on a minute sect of ideologically extreme people, many of them members of Gen Z. On the Right, however, young people are engaged in politics to real ends — and for enjoyment. For all the worry about the most isolated, online generation, things are looking up. They may become more friendly and more articulate than previously just through participation in events such as door-knocking. And they might be an even more reliable political weapon in future elections.

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