While war and rumors of war are escalating under the Biden-Harris administration, America’s active-duty recruitment rates are the lowest we have seen in decades. Recovering from this shortage will be a challenge, but the next administration has a clear opportunity to rebuild America’s military dominance by focusing on not only recruitment but also retaining military families.
Recruitment is down due to a multitude of factors, such as declining confidence in the military, the overwhelming obesity and medical problems in our youth making them ineligible for enlistment, and the fear of service-related emotional and physical injuries such as PTSD and suicide.
Blue Star Families’ 2023 Military Family Lifestyle Survey shows that just eight years ago, 55% of active-duty service members were likely to recommend military service. But, by 2023, that number fell to only 32%. These statistics coincide with the recruitment decline since 2021.
During President Donald Trump’s administration, from 2017 to 2020, all branches of the armed forces met or exceeded their recruitment goals, except in fiscal 2018 when the Army missed its goal by a small margin. This is a sharp contrast to the recruitment numbers from 2022 to 2024 under the Biden-Harris administration. In 2022, the Army was 15,099 recruits or 25% short of its goal. In 2023, the Marines and Space Force were the only branches to meet their recruitment goals.
The Army recently announced it has exceeded its recruitment goals for fiscal 2024 at around 55,000 recruits. However, this is roughly what it recruited in fiscal 2023, which was 10,000 short of its goal. Lowering the goal to avoid falling short once again does not convey that America is ready to defend itself.
The Pentagon believes China will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. In 2023, the Government Accountability Office found staggering readiness shortfalls in our land, sea, air, and space preparedness in its military readiness eeport. Without a large number of well-trained troops, we will not be prepared to defend ourselves against future threats.
The truth is that renewed slogans and lowered fitness standards have done little to help recruitment. Plus, in true government fashion, the ineffective marketing recruitment push priced at $11 million taxpayer dollars with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson may have had the opposite effect and resulted in fewer enlistments.
Under Trump’s administration, the military had high recruitment and retention numbers. This is, in part, because of his “America first” foreign policy approach, which resulted in no new U.S. wars being started anywhere in the world during his time in office. He did this by using direct military power sparingly and only in clear instances where our national interests were threatened. By modernizing the military by establishing the Space Force, the president also ignited confidence that our military can be proactive in anticipating new threats.
If Trump wins the election, he may be able to increase recruitment numbers by doing what he did in his first term, but that might not be enough.
There is an opportunity cost attached to military service, both for service members and families, but there are ways to mitigate that cost and make a military career more attractive. It would be in the interest of Trump, the military, and the country not only to restore the policies that were in place under his first administration but also to further incentivize service through innovative family-centered policy solutions.
For example, the military now offers an immediate Federal Thrift Savings Plan match to active-duty service members instead of the traditional 20-year-service-minimum retirement plan. Applying this same strategy to military spouses may prove fruitful for retention.
Over my past 12 years as a military spouse, some of my employers have offered retirement plans, while others have not. If the option of a self- or employer-funded TSP account were to be given to military spouses who are teachers or entrepreneurs, for example, it would not only allow spouses to invest in their future, but it would also allow them to build that safety net for themselves regardless of a move, a divorce, or sparse employment options available at their duty stations.
Multiple organizations have been working for years on adding military spouses as a target group of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, which would provide a tax benefit to employers who hire military spouses. This bill has yet to be pushed through Congress despite multiple introductions and votes by the House and Senate.
It’s also well known that the military healthcare plan Tricare does not cover many basic healthcare costs, such as infertility treatments, chiropractic care, contacts exams, and more. Fortunately, due to a long-term effort by MOAA and the Military Coalition, Tricare beneficiaries will be allowed a flexible spending account in 2025.
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An FSA may seem like a small win, but providing real change and modernization like this will help retain families. Raising childcare stipends, offering immediate mental health appointments for active-duty service members, and adjusting the basic housing allowance to reflect the real market conditions are other opportunities for improvement.
Because Trump has a positive track record in military recruitment and has veteran Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) on his ticket, there is hope that this problem can be fixed. The opportunity is there for Trump to build and sustain our fighting force even better than he did in his first term if he adds investing in military spouses to his “America first” policy. Then, we may be able to make our military great again.
Bekah Bibb is a seasoned military spouse and communications manager in northern Virginia.